Thursday 8.5, for the past 24 hours:
• EURUSD has dropped 26 pips against the previous day close; hit target set yesterday.
• ↓ 66.9 pips High & Low extreme move, vs. 57.9 pips of 22 day Average Range.
Strength (0~10) Comparison:
• USD in early session MEDIUM 4.0 -> 8.1 STRONG of late session
• EUR in early session MEDIUM 3.5 -> 3.9 MEDIUM of late session
Market Focus & Moods:
• The market was anticipating some key events and releases today. The ADP jobs report came out much weaker than expectations at 330K vs 695K estimate. The much weaker than expected number sent the USD lower. At 10 AM ET when the ISM services index was released. Contrary to the ADP report, this report came in at a record high level of 64.1. Moreover, employment did not show weakness but rebounded from a sub 50 level last month to 53.8. New orders rose to 63.7 from 62.1. Order backlog remained high at 63.5. Exports kicked on reopenings overseas at 65.8 vs 50.7 in June. At the same time, Vice Chair Clarida was speaking and although his speech and commentary was not as hawkish as Fed officials like Bullard, Kaplan and Waller, it was certainly not as dovish as Powell, Brainard or Kashkari. The combination of Clarida, and the ISM services record numbers, reversed the dollar to the upside. It was fast break the other way.
• Thursday, morning soft EU economic data, afternoon 1:30pm US Initial Jobless Claims & Goods and Services Trade Balance.
Next Step:
• I expect a test lower support 1.1828 first, then 1.1810-1.1805; upside 1.1850 first, then 1.1870. Close around 1.1840~ 1.1815 area.
• EURUSD has dropped 26 pips against the previous day close; hit target set yesterday.
• ↓ 66.9 pips High & Low extreme move, vs. 57.9 pips of 22 day Average Range.
Strength (0~10) Comparison:
• USD in early session MEDIUM 4.0 -> 8.1 STRONG of late session
• EUR in early session MEDIUM 3.5 -> 3.9 MEDIUM of late session
Market Focus & Moods:
• The market was anticipating some key events and releases today. The ADP jobs report came out much weaker than expectations at 330K vs 695K estimate. The much weaker than expected number sent the USD lower. At 10 AM ET when the ISM services index was released. Contrary to the ADP report, this report came in at a record high level of 64.1. Moreover, employment did not show weakness but rebounded from a sub 50 level last month to 53.8. New orders rose to 63.7 from 62.1. Order backlog remained high at 63.5. Exports kicked on reopenings overseas at 65.8 vs 50.7 in June. At the same time, Vice Chair Clarida was speaking and although his speech and commentary was not as hawkish as Fed officials like Bullard, Kaplan and Waller, it was certainly not as dovish as Powell, Brainard or Kashkari. The combination of Clarida, and the ISM services record numbers, reversed the dollar to the upside. It was fast break the other way.
• Thursday, morning soft EU economic data, afternoon 1:30pm US Initial Jobless Claims & Goods and Services Trade Balance.
Next Step:
• I expect a test lower support 1.1828 first, then 1.1810-1.1805; upside 1.1850 first, then 1.1870. Close around 1.1840~ 1.1815 area.
