Enough evidence to go short (maybe longer term - or not)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
80 0 1
Without attempting to impose my opinion of the likelihood of parity on my trading decisions, I still see plenty of evidence to look for a short trade here. I can't know with certainty whether the year-long downtrend has ended or not, but too many things appear to be lining up at the same time to ignore the clear signs of at least a serious pause in (and more likely a serious correction to) the current rally. If price can continue through these levels without breaking back down through them, I'll become a convert to the uptrend camp.

But there is an amazing confluence of non-correlated techniques that says it's at or near time for a short trade:

1) Oscillators (not shown here) on almost all charts from weekly down to 30-MIN have reached overbought
2) 6-HR chart - Fib projection/retracement levels from several recent swings line up perfectly with daily chart resistance
3) Daily chart - Median line and 100 SMA resistance meeting at previous congestion level (see Tim West's excellent "Time at Mode" analysis at
4) If you like to trade "reversion-to-the-mean" setups, you have one already signalling to go short to the 50 SMA - 300+ pips would work for me. Unless price moves enough to negate that setup, I think it looks like a high probability opportunity.

I thought we'd reached the end of the rally and I was all set to go short around 1.1220 - but my indicators weren't quite in synch with the setup, so I'm waiting for a slight new high to stop out the early short entries. I could be wrong about that, but I have a tendency to jump early, so I'm trying to develop a little patience and wait for things to line up better. I'm sure several of us have been waiting for over a month for these levels to be reached...

If you're currently long, you might want to pull in your horns a bit to take advantage of what looks to be a really solid short. At least be aware of the potential for a turn down and plan accordingly.
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out