denovo

Enough evidence to go short (maybe longer term - or not)

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
80 0 1
Without attempting to impose my opinion of the likelihood of parity on my trading decisions, I still see plenty of evidence to look for a short trade here. I can't know with certainty whether the year-long downtrend has ended or not, but too many things appear to be lining up at the same time to ignore the clear signs of at least a serious pause in (and more likely a serious correction to) the current rally. If price can continue through these levels without breaking back down through them, I'll become a convert to the uptrend camp.

But there is an amazing confluence of non-correlated techniques that says it's at or near time for a short trade:

1) Oscillators (not shown here) on almost all charts from weekly down to 30-MIN have reached overbought
2) 6-HR chart - Fib projection/retracement levels from several recent swings line up perfectly with daily chart resistance
3) Daily chart - Median line and 100 SMA resistance meeting at previous congestion level (see Tim West's excellent "Time at Mode" analysis at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/2tUujY6l-EURUSD-Euro-A-Clear-Short-Sale-at-1-1320-target-1-0830/)
4) If you like to trade "reversion-to-the-mean" setups, you have one already signalling to go short to the 50 SMA - 300+ pips would work for me. Unless price moves enough to negate that setup, I think it looks like a high probability opportunity.

I thought we'd reached the end of the rally and I was all set to go short around 1.1220 - but my indicators weren't quite in synch with the setup, so I'm waiting for a slight new high to stop out the early short entries. I could be wrong about that, but I have a tendency to jump early, so I'm trying to develop a little patience and wait for things to line up better. I'm sure several of us have been waiting for over a month for these levels to be reached...

If you're currently long, you might want to pull in your horns a bit to take advantage of what looks to be a really solid short. At least be aware of the potential for a turn down and plan accordingly.
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