ICmarkets

Quick update on the Euro – opinions most welcome!

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
387 0 8
Weekly view: From the weekly timeframe , we can see that price is selling off from a weekly supply area at 1.1532-1.1278. This supply zone is a very significant hurdle in our opinion (held price lower since the 11th May) since if there’s a sustained break above this area, our long-term bias (currently short) on this pair will very likely shift north.

Daily view: Following Tuesday’s bearish response to the underside of a daily Quasimodo cluster zone at 1.1390/1.1421 (located relatively deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area), price aggressively extended lower during the course of yesterday’s session. In the event that this selling continues, it is likely we’ll see price collide with a daily swap area coming in at 1.1051-1.1000.

4hr view: The recent tumble on the Euro             saw price take out several 4hr technical levels during its onslaught. It was only once price hit the mid-level number 1.1150 did we see the market stabilize. This move was likely triggered by comments from Federal Reserve member Jerome Powell who suggested a Fed rate hike could come as early as September.

Going into today’s sessions, however, we’re going to steer away from longs as we expect this market to continue selling off due to there being little to no supportive structures seen on the higher timeframes until the daily swap zone at 1.1051-1.1000. Therefore, it will only be once/if we see price connect with the 4hr swap area coming in at 1.1006-1.0983 (positioned just below the aforementioned daily swap zone) will our team be looking for buys in this market.

With regards to sells, nonetheless, our objective is simple. Watch for a convincing push below the 4hr Quasimodo support base at 1.1078-1.1120 (the space for price to move below this zone is very nice), and attempt to trade any retest seen that has corresponding lower timeframe confirming price action, targeting the aforementioned 4hr swap area.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.1006-1.0983 (Stop loss: 1.0975).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).

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