TipTVFinance

A look at EUR/USD ahead of US GDP

FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
US preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP is due for release today. The growth rate is seen coming-in at 0.6% compared to previous quarter’s growth rate of 1.4%.

Q1 slowdown is seasonal

That is a marked slowdown; however, note that Q1 is usually the weakest in the US and strongest in Eurozone. Plus, the recent slowdown is well know and pretty much priced-in. Fed’s dovish tilt following December’s rate hike was largely due to domestic slowdown amid oil             prices sell-off and heightened risk from global developments.
Hence, markets are unlikely to worry much unless the GDP print is weaker-than-expected. Moreover, the possibility of a better-than-expected GDP figure is high, given the goods trade deficit narrowed sharply in March.

Furthermore, Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation – core personal consumption expenditure – is seen taking a big leap from Q4 2015 print of 1.3% to 1.9%. Anything just shy of estimates or higher-than-estimates could keep dollar bulls happy.

Also note – Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) status quo policy today may have put a temporary end to global mad rush towards negative rates. For Fed, this is good news since other central banks standing pat makes it easy for Fed to move rates higher. This again is supportive for US dollar             .

Now we look at EUR/USD             pair, which has failed to capitalize on the bullish break seen on the hourly chart.

  • A move above 1.1372 is what is required now for fresh bids to come-in and fuel rally towards 1.14+ levels.
  • On the other hand, failure to capitalize on the bullish break on hourly charts means the pair is more vulnerable to strong US data. A drop to 1.1295 could happen, however, bears need an hourly close below the same.
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out