Our current outlook on the Euro...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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Weekly view: From the weekly timeframe , we can see that the Euro             has rallied now for five consecutive weeks, subsequently forming higher highs each time. Last week’s candle, as you can see closed near it highs at 1.1442, deep within a weekly supply area at 1.1532-1.1278. This has been the most we’ve seen the EUR/USD             rally since the market began to plummet back in May 2014. In spite of this, our long-term bias still remains south on this pair and will continue to do so until we see a convincing push above this weekly supply area.

Daily view: The bullish reaction seen from daily support at 1.1143 was clearly the motivator, if you will, to attract further buyers into the market last week. From this level, the bulls pressed forward eventually attacking the daily Harmonic Bat reversal zone at 1.1516/1.1376 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area) for the second time. Instead of selling interest being seen from this area, we saw Friday’s daily candle close above a daily Quasimodo resistance level at 1.1421 seen within this Daily Harmonic Bat zone. If the buyers manage to hold their positions above this hurdle this week, it’s likely we may see further upside to this pair.

4hr view: In the midst of Friday’s sessions, the Euro             pair sold off from the 1. 1400             number– faked below the swing low 1.1338 seen marked in green, and saw a sharp rally north consequently taking out 1. 1400             and testing the 4hr resistance level seen at 1.1443 (positioned relatively deep within the aforementioned daily Harmonic Bat zone).

So that we’re all on the same page here, let’s just recap. The weekly chart shows price currently dancing within supply at the moment, that’s easy enough for everyone to see. The daily chart on the other hand, is not so straight forward. Granted, price is trading within a daily Harmonic Bat reversal zone, but with Friday’s close seen above the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level it does not exactly instill confidence for us to begin looking for sells (see above for all higher-timeframe levels). So where does this leave us on the 4hr chart?

As far as we can see, there is not really much room for price to move at the moment unless one is looking for small intraday trades. A move north from current price will almost instantly place the Euro             within the jaws of a relatively long-term 4hr supply area coming in at 1.1532-1.1476 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area). A push south from the aforementioned 4hr resistance level on the other hand, will very likely just as quickly see price shake hands with 1. 1400             . In the same way, should a break below this number be seen, price will in all likelihood greet 4hr demand at 1.1322-1.1358 not too long after. We’re sure you’re getting the picture by now…Unless there is an explosive move seen today, traders are likely going to be forced to look for only small intraday moves, or simply not trade at all.

Personally, we’re not interested in intraday trading today, especially on Mondays when liquidity is generally low in the market place. For anyone who is intending to trade any of the above levels, we would strongly advise waiting for some sort of lower timeframe confirming signal before risking capital.
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