ICmarkets
Short

EUR/USD: Technical outlook and review...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
507 0 3
Weekly view: The weekly timeframe still shows that the Euro             is trending south, and has been for nearly a year now. A convincing push above weekly supply at 1.1449-1.1278 would be needed to invalidate our current bearish bias. In the event that the Euro             continues to be bought, we might, just might, see prices challenge the weekly swap level at 1.1096.

Daily view: From this angle, we can see that yesterday’s price action drove itself deep into the daily resistance zone at 1.1051-1.0918. This area, as you can probably see, remains a key obstacle to a move towards the aforementioned weekly swap level.

4hr view: After price met strong support at the 1.0860 mark, the Euro             took no prisoners, rallying over 100 pips into yesterday’s close. This move took out 1.0900 and is now seen teasing the extremes (the 4hr AB=CD completion point at 1.0985) of our Gartley pattern that we’ve been talking about over the last couple of days.

Given that this pair is currently trading within a proven resistance zone on the daily scale (see above) at the moment, the focal point for today will be looking for lower timeframe confirmed shorts around the aforementioned 4hr AB=CD completion point. However, looming just above this completion point is a large psychological number 1.1000 and an extreme 4hr supply zone at 1.1034-1.0992; therefore we could potentially see a spike north before any type of reversal is seen. Supposing that we manage to find a lower timeframe entry around the AB=CD point, our team have already penciled in 1.0900 as a logical first take-profit target as per the red arrow.

The reason for us requiring lower timeframe confirmation at our 4hr AB=CD completion point is because there is supportive pressure being seen on the weekly timeframe (see above) – better to be safe than sorry!

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: 1.0985 region (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: depends on where one confirms this area).

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