I know you want a flag or a breakout or an indicator to tell you where the price might go. Even if I would come up with it I would immediately ask myself what is the risk reward for this setup and what is the PROBABILITY? This simple magic trio of mathematics is the cornerstone of any profitable approach in the markets, yet people don't even understand the concept of mathematical advantage or edge in the context of professional gambling in financial markets.
Currencies move because of fundamentals, because of central banks, because of geopolitics, politics, and more. Professionals fine tune their prediction models with complex statistical analysis and mathematical models using advanced calculus. Or at least that's my humble understanding of the situation. :) Back to the drawing board.
This is a setup derived from some simulated projections of what could happen, how it might happen, and most importantly when it might happen. The main scenario highlighted with the dots is not set in stone, although I must admit, I feel at least one of the data points will be hit in spectacular fashion. Most importantly, I have attached to this snapshot a grid made of zones and squares to serve as milestones or reference elements in order to chip in as we stroll along into the future with perspectives, potential predictions, but also estimations of probabilities.
As the path suggests, I expect the price to create another high (not precisely sure when) before looking in the mirror to ask what on earth is going on and where it might go. I also expect a zone of relative stagnation or consolidation and maybe reduced volatility. At the Exclamation part this is a milestone of a potential point in time where a shift in sentiment or mood or volatility might occur so grab your volatility indicators when we reach it if you want to have a closer look at what might occur in the next steps of the future. The end of the project is left with a little game of choice or predictions or at least probability assignments for the zones (in case we are even close to them by that time).
While my hope is to at least surprise the observer with the coincidences of the future relative to the elements in the project, I also provide this model as a platform for suggestions, ideas, bias or even banter and trolling. Feel free to drop a comment with anything that suits your present needs. I will try and make the time to post my own probability assessments with price levels.
We start the project with 2 bearish candles (last one not over yet) and the idea previously mentioned that I still feel there might be room for higher highs eventually. not a number (nan) zone would be a surprise if it is penetrated so let's take it from here and see how the projections compare to the reality that will unfold on us.
Currencies move because of fundamentals, because of central banks, because of geopolitics, politics, and more. Professionals fine tune their prediction models with complex statistical analysis and mathematical models using advanced calculus. Or at least that's my humble understanding of the situation. :) Back to the drawing board.
This is a setup derived from some simulated projections of what could happen, how it might happen, and most importantly when it might happen. The main scenario highlighted with the dots is not set in stone, although I must admit, I feel at least one of the data points will be hit in spectacular fashion. Most importantly, I have attached to this snapshot a grid made of zones and squares to serve as milestones or reference elements in order to chip in as we stroll along into the future with perspectives, potential predictions, but also estimations of probabilities.
As the path suggests, I expect the price to create another high (not precisely sure when) before looking in the mirror to ask what on earth is going on and where it might go. I also expect a zone of relative stagnation or consolidation and maybe reduced volatility. At the Exclamation part this is a milestone of a potential point in time where a shift in sentiment or mood or volatility might occur so grab your volatility indicators when we reach it if you want to have a closer look at what might occur in the next steps of the future. The end of the project is left with a little game of choice or predictions or at least probability assignments for the zones (in case we are even close to them by that time).
While my hope is to at least surprise the observer with the coincidences of the future relative to the elements in the project, I also provide this model as a platform for suggestions, ideas, bias or even banter and trolling. Feel free to drop a comment with anything that suits your present needs. I will try and make the time to post my own probability assessments with price levels.
We start the project with 2 bearish candles (last one not over yet) and the idea previously mentioned that I still feel there might be room for higher highs eventually. not a number (nan) zone would be a surprise if it is penetrated so let's take it from here and see how the projections compare to the reality that will unfold on us.
Comment:
nan zone narrowly avoided and this pivot in this position could turn out to be an actual reversal with a bull wave follow up of more than 100 pips. Probability estimation 43%. We actually need less than 30% for a long position to make sense from a math point of view. Currently trading at 1.0835, low ~1.08, potential target 1.096, flexible and with early partial exit on the table.
Comment:
0-1-2 in the making? I might be wrong on this one. Never thought we would see it inside the nan so not sure if my input on this would be more relevant than the snapshot itself which should still deliver at least a small interesting surprise.
Comment:
After a bounce from the top edge of the 1 zone pit stop at the nan text. I have no bias for this one from this position. One scenario that pops out more intriguing than others is a nan-3-6 sequence if the bulls manage to push this out from this position.
Comment:
Resistance, consolidation, and a break at the bottom level of the 3 zone. We might see an incursion towards the colored parts of the project. Let's just hope it's not a Fibonacci sequence as I don't have a 13 in the project, unless the 13 is the only dot that will be hit in spectacular fashion as the initial idea mentioned.