In the absence of updated forecasts and a press conference, only the statement will be published following the meeting. However, changes in the statement language can provide important clues about the policy outlook and should not be overlooked.
Our measure displays similar movements to the fed funds rate over time: FOMC statements become more hawkish prior to and during tightening cycles and more dovish prior to and during easing cycles. But our measure is not just a proxy for actual FOMC decisions.
Fed attempted to implement a dovish hike in December according to our measure. The average FOMC statement over the past half-year was dovish in an absolute sense and slightly more dovish than at the start of previous hiking cycles.”
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