theangelwing
Short

Eurozone economic weakness continues

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
985 12 2
The break of the up trend line (thin) after the divergence is the sign that the trend is reversing and the main trend is now the downtrend. (the previous divergence analysis on this chart :
what can happen in 4h chart divergence
)

At the end of the week this pair bounced right at major support 1.289 and i'm expecting a pull back to somewhere around 1.2985-1.3 before continues to go lower.

In the chart above if the pullback scenario can't go beyond 1.3 there's a possible Head and shoulder pattern in this 4h chart that makes the downside target lower than the previously expected. while a break above 1.303/04 (previous minor support) we may have a ranging market with 1.2985-1.304.

Some analysts suggest that this pair may found a selling pressure around 1.301/02

Next week important events are :
1. Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment ( Dec 11 )
2. Fed Interest Rate Decision ( Dec 12 )
3. ILO Unemployment Rate ( Dec 12 )
4. Swiss National Bank Labor Rate Announcement ( Dec 13 )
5. US Retail Sales ( Dec 13 )

We also have European Council meeting on Dec 13
petergo99037185
3 years ago
the problem with your H&S formation assumption is that it will accelerate downward Monday, see 6MO/DAY CHART, predictive time frame, add news CHINA inflation, DOWN
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theangelwing petergo99037185
3 years ago
Hi, thanks for your comment, my trading system is on 4h and 15m chart and renko, I don't look at daily chart a lot except for the candlestick pattern.
And a headline : "ECB's Draghi: Economic weakness in the Eurozone expected to extend into 2013"
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petergo99037185
3 years ago
TO make matters worse the US FOMC meting following on TUE will pressure dollar up intensively, making EURO target AGAIN, a downward forecast!
Reply
StockFxMarket
3 years ago
nice analysis,do you think if reverse to bear trend line most of traders or investors expect news must be positive for eurusd and wait this news to break this line and if they expect this is negative news must break bull trend line now ..
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StockFxMarket
3 years ago
if looks your analysis your sure to go down why must reverse in this point ?
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theangelwing StockFxMarket
3 years ago
It's not a must, it's just a possibility by looking at the bullish engulfing pattern on the support there, if it's not reversing i'll still use my divergence target, but IF it reversed and forming a head and shoulder I may have a new target further below.
thanks for the comment.
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StockFxMarket theangelwing
3 years ago
yes will be nice for short :)
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ForexTradingRus
3 years ago
agree with vectors, but Im not sure about levels
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ellcz
3 years ago
100 pips drowdown? :D Wow lol.... That can kill your account...
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theangelwing ellcz
3 years ago
100 pips draw down meand i still have 400 pips left in account for another 150-300 pips single trade catch :D
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ellcz theangelwing
3 years ago
xD... ok :D
Reply
theangelwing ellcz
3 years ago
every time I trade I always make sure that my equity can hold up to 500-1000 pips single trade loss, which I only put 25 pips - 50 pips at risk each entry. :D
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