tntsunrise
Short

EURUSD HARMONIC COMBO:

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
5289 45 121
8 months ago
EURUSD             HARMONIC COMBO:

There is a Bullish Bat and A Bearish Bat
in 2015 Feb to May

Now we have a Bearish BAT and a Bullish BAT
in 2016.
Harmonic move one by one , the small one actually
forms the ABC point of the Big Harmonic Pattern .
isn't it amazing?
So if you see my previous post of the bearish BAT pattern
we short at 1. 1313             ,
where is the best point to Take your profit?
The Blue one gives you a hint.
Of course, if price break through the A point of 1.1375
then the Blue Gartely Pattern will be invalid because
the C point exceed the A
8 months ago
Comment: Dropeed nicely
Now is 1.1200
earn 113 pips
8 months ago
Comment: NOW IS 1.1175, +140 PIPS
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FXGOOGLE
8 months ago
There is also a cypher pattern on that pair if you look closely
Reply
waterman
8 months ago
By seeing the struture a b/o to down side is possible becos price is ranging for a while !
Reply
waterman waterman
8 months ago
and impulse is clearly to downside !
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RationalTrader
8 months ago
But, guys....on what fundamental should the USD currently become stronger and EURUSD decline in price? ....the FEDs just held the rate low if you didn't notice...and Eurozone stabalizes slowly while Draghi has indicated no more QE since his strategy is actually working over time


....I suggest you guys find another suitable pattern that support this fact, or be prepared to take a big risk in loosing money;) we're trading to earn money aren't we?
Reply
tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
FED did not increase the rate in March doesnt mean they won't increase later, same to EURO, no more Extra QE, doents mean they stopped QE. they are still printing more money.
Just compare the USD 10 yr's bond's yiled and the euros, which one is higher?
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RationalTrader tntsunrise
8 months ago
Yes of course they will still increase the rate as originally planned, but this was allready priced in through 2015...what we are experiencing now is the market trying to re calibrate to probably 2x in rate increases in 2016 instead of 4 as originally planned by the FEDs...the market is currently still adjusting to this. Regarding the bond yield, compare q4 2015 price to q1 2016...anyway its yield is currently re calibrating as well....as well as oil,gold and indices (see CMEs fututres) in the world economy at the moment, therefore IMO not good indicators. The world economy fear is wearing off...and the bull markets are coming back for a comeback in 2016, partly due to a lower dollar value than expectected for 2016. Gold value is perhaps USD's best indcator, it's about to go higher IMO.
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DUAL77 RationalTrader
8 months ago
I think it's not about USD becoming stronger. It's about not letting EUR rise because of very low inflation in EU right now.
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RationalTrader DUAL77
8 months ago
See Jarrat David's comments on today market situation on EUR and USD, I tend to agree with him;
Reply
RationalTrader RationalTrader
8 months ago
"USD: The strongest currency fundamentally, however current sentiment is bearish due to the March 16 Fed communication which was decidedly dovish; with downgrades of inflation, growth and interest rate forecasts, coupled with a focus on downside global risks and dismissal of recent rise in core inflation. Headline NFP for February beat estimates at 242k vs 190k expected; the solid beat was undermined by a miss on Average Hourly Earnings which declined -0.1%. vs a rise of 0.2%. Core PCE for January ticked up to 1.7% y/y which is reassuring for the Fed’s tightening policy.

EUR: A bearish currency fundamentally, however currently trading neutral following upside from Draghi’s comments at the March meeting. Core CPI for February beat expectations at 0.8% y/y vs 0.7% expected. On March 10, the ECB cut the Deposit Rate by from -0.3% to -0.4%, the Main Refinancing Rate from 0.05% to 0.00%, and the Marginal Lending Facility from 0.30% to 0.25%. They also announced a new series of 4 TLTRO’s, and an increase of €20bn per month to the asset purchase programme, now at €80bn per month."
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Fibtree RationalTrader
8 months ago
Friend, let me try and help you here. Jarrat gives fundamental directions for currencys that are not tradeable by itself. To make money you need to do exactly what traders like Jack do. You need to find high rewarding setups with a low and definable risk. Sometimes market goes big steps into the fundamental logical direction, sometimes it just goes opposite. Have you ever seen market make a move and afterwards a reason is delivered? Thats happening a lot. A famous saying among traders is "Markets can go longer unlogic than you can stay solvent" :)

Especially with Jarrat I had a student who tried his luck with him about a year and a half ago when he opened some service with real time news for 200$ or so. Needless to say he lost a lot of money by "believing" into Jarrats directions and not following clear setups. I'm not saying fundamentals are bad, you can use them to help but if you only want to use one method then never ever only use fundamentals for trading, as it seems like you do.

I hope you can take this not as an attack but as an honest tip from someone who knows. If you dont believe today and continue with fundamentals alone you will never make consistent money. When you have also made this experience feel free to send me a message and we can talk more then.
+1 Reply
tntsunrise TOP Fibtree
8 months ago
Nice explanation!
+1 Reply
RationalTrader Fibtree
8 months ago
Thanks for your opinions guys! Appriciate it. Don't get me wrong, I am not a pure fundamentalist, or I guess I wouldn't be here on Tradingview. Look at my ideas to see my technical analyzes. I am what is called a "Technimentalist" - to be honest that is sort of the only way I can justfiy my trading. That is about a 50/50 fundamental and technical trader. What I mainly do regarding technicals is finding support and resistance levels with mainly fibos and SMAs. I also like simple geometrics to spot breakouts.
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RationalTrader RationalTrader
8 months ago
I will look into DiNapoli as well Fibtree, I haven't heard of him yet:) Anyway though I have a hard time beating the old buy and hold strategy hehe.... I use the same technicals and just as well use japanese candlestick methology and smoothed heiken ashi on my longer trades. I have open positions now that have moved several 1000 pips and stayed open for weeks. Just find a broker that has no swaps(as there shouldnt be on any CFD future contract really). And then Just enter a small position after spotting and feeling the reversal in the market..like on spx after the breakout now in China....many thousand pips long position...it's hard to enter such a trade without taking both fundamentals and technicals into consideration, -you need both. Anyway though there were double bottoms W on both weekly and daily chart on SPX. Only thing with this trading style is it is quite boring hehe...so I tend to do some news trading as well..and hedge with gold...Task with this type of trades is to just let them be and belive in yourself and remember why you entered that trade in the start. You put the stops wide and just let it ride. Then I move my stops maybe once a week or twice a month, and look over the charts in the weekends. I prefer though to use a broker instead of a fund though so I can adjust my stops and close any position if a nuclear bomb goes of somewhere:p Please have a look at my real account on myfxbook to see how this type of trading works...look at the equity figure...https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/sharpinvesting/1558823
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tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
In money 140 pips, still think this trade is risky?
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RationalTrader tntsunrise
8 months ago
SPX is the safest trade atm in my opinion based on my strategies. Just look at my real account I linked. Anyway never trade money you cannot afford to loose...I have just bought more on several dips lately, after seeing how strong this bull market is atm..I've earned over 2K$ over 30% of my account in just a couple of weeks trading SPX after guessing the bottom at around 1800. Read Bogle's Common sense investing and understand the power of these bull markets.
Reply
RationalTrader RationalTrader
8 months ago
exit at bear markets, guess the bottoms and buy...when bull market is back by on dips.. get this right and learn to feel this market.. and you will become a suksessfull trader.
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tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
why you talk about SPX500, arent' u saying eur is going up?
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RationalTrader tntsunrise
8 months ago
Sorry wrong thread(!) regarding that spx500 comments. When it comes to eur/usd, we're currently in a ranged daily marked..I would wait with any positions to we have a clearer view of a main trend...or be prepared to trade up and down a ranged market which is not easy. Usd is currently stronger than Eur so fundamentally we're headed down....but again we're in a ranged marked so I wouldn't enter any position before we exit the range nomatter Ws or Ms on the chart..
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tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
Great. So now you are saying EUR is going down because fundamental USD is strong. So do you think this EURUSD short Trade a risky trade?
Reply
tntsunrise TOP tntsunrise
8 months ago
Quote your first msg:
"But, guys....on what fundamental should the USD currently become stronger and EURUSD decline in price? ....the FEDs just held the rate low if you didn't notice...and Eurozone stabalizes slowly while Draghi has indicated no more QE since his strategy is actually working over time


....I suggest you guys find another suitable pattern that support this fact, or be prepared to take a big risk in loosing money;) we're trading to earn money aren't we?"
U change mind or not?
Reply
RationalTrader tntsunrise
8 months ago
where do you write this is a short trade?? you have patterns showing both direction in this setup.. To sum up my opinion is this: The long trend is down now due to strong USD, we might get another jump in eur/usd short term before the downtrend continue. What do I do? I wait shorting this pair until 1. short term jump up within downtrend is confirmed. Or 2 long term downtrend is confirmed with further down movement. If to go short now, place you s/l above 1.1385 in case of another correction.
Reply
tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
where? let me point it out. It is in the 4th paragraph. after the word" amazing",

"So if you see my previous post of the bearish BAT pattern
we short at 1.1313,
where is the best point to Take your profit? "
I write very clearly, we short at 1.1313.
I suggest you read carefully of the author's view and then start to comment.
Reply
RationalTrader tntsunrise
8 months ago
There is an easy option to write clearly if you are short, long or neutral for others here to easily see your stand; short, neutral or long. It's a great feature really, and I suggest you carefully pay attention to this. I did not read all your comments below your chart, rather analyzed your posted chart and all the text in that, -sorry for that. And btw please read my guidelines carefully as it is whats currently happening in this market. See my post for where to put s/l, -I wouldn't enter any trade before we are closer to it though. For t/p there is an obvious strong fibo point at 1.11430, I would place my t/p right above at 1.11450. I hope you got the best out of yesterdays evening as well, I did my self with 5392 pips so far this week:) https://www.myfxbook.com/portfolio/sharpinvesting/1558823
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tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
it's already in my post. pls check and read it carefuly.
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tntsunrise TOP RationalTrader
8 months ago
It's OK. If you are fundamental Trader, trade with your observation of fundamental facts. Stick with your own plan and trade it.
please take note, fundamental trade are normally for longer term, you could be right that EURUSD may go up in the next few weeks. But it doesnt mean that we can't short EUR based on Techncial Anaylysis.
Take this trade for example: I short at 1.1313, and now the price is 1.1250, which means I already earned 60 pips profit, Did I lose money or win money? I can easily take partial profit and make the rest position Break Even and make it a risk free trade. That's how I trade and how I make money.
+1 Reply
cayman345 RationalTrader
8 months ago
I agree, i believe euro/usd will see 1.18 in coming weeks/month. (38% FIB weekly time frame) Strong bullish bar on daily is the line in the sand where can look for buy signals. We'll see what happens
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arif_awan
8 months ago
bat is not valid coz c leg touches A leg. so its not a bat.
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arif_awan arif_awan
8 months ago
first patterns are valid coz legs are at valid retracements
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tntsunrise TOP arif_awan
8 months ago
My rule is , the candle at C point doesnt close below A
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pedroscott tntsunrise
8 months ago
Looks like probabilities favor Euro at 1.06 more or less if Gartley plays out...So I am staying in this trade short. Fundamental or technical?? I like harmonics and they are quite predictive in my opinion! And your charts are very useful so tx for posting them Jack. Have a happy day with the little one!
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Ramezitani
8 months ago
sir is it a bullish crab because ab is the 0.618fibo of xa
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pedroscott
8 months ago
I didn't place a stop very close- 1.12300. Ouch! Fortunately just paper money this time. Do you think this Gartley will still play out to 1.06 level?
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pedroscott
8 months ago
Price hasn't taken out the 1.137 level at A yet but todays long candle was strong. Any thoughts?
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roadtogo pedroscott
8 months ago
boilenger band plays here..we need to look 4h charts and see if it close below upper boilenger band soon..otherwise im .ucked up too
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roadtogo pedroscott
8 months ago
if next hour closes below 1.13 which seems likely, we can say todays move is over. I have no clue what might happen tomorrow but it is so risky to stay without a SL
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pedroscott
8 months ago
The Central Banks jiggering with the currencies is all part of the market psychology no doubt but makes trading dangerous, especially when Yellen or Draghi promise or hint at more easy credit and more purchases of often questionable assets....
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pedroscott
8 months ago
And then the currency pairs go crazy
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bigabbey pedroscott
8 months ago

Hey guys, I am shooting for SALE on EURUSD till next week FRIDAY....Any recommendation or advise, I appreciate your comments...
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bigabbey
8 months ago
Hey guys, I am shooting for SALE on EURUSD till next week FRIDAY....Any recommendation or advise, I appreciate your comments...
Reply
coco33
8 months ago
Hello, thank you for your good tnt analysis

Point C 1.1390 1.1376 Exceed the A, invalid pattern ?
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coco33 coco33
8 months ago
Point C 1.139 Exceed the A 1.1376, invalid pattern ?
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coco33 coco33
8 months ago
I'm french, I speak and write very little English, sorry ^^
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tntsunrise TOP coco33
8 months ago
exceed is OK. as long as do not close below A
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Gene_L
8 months ago
i've tried this pattern as well but sl on the last top of 18th... still keep eyes on it~
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tntsunrise TOP Gene_L
8 months ago
the latst BAT pattern win profit at fisrt target, rest position B.E.
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