APosner
Long

EUR/USD top but more upside to come?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
117 0 3
EUR/USD             has been on a tear but hit some resistance yesterday and is a little lower now. The short term 8-hour chart indicates a top. The pitchfork median line has provided target resistance, and the scale of this rally and the previous rally are nearly identical in time and percentage.
While the in the very short term EUR/USD             is bearish , the opportunity to rally much higher has appeared. If price can consolidate here and move through 1.14 the range from February will be broken, and a new long-term trend will emerge.

Current situation:
- The pair struck the pitchfork median line and is retracing gains.
- The sell-off may continue to the lower median line , but a bounce higher from there is most likely. The short term trend is still up.

Looking ahead:
- Wednesday through Friday next week have a variety of US economic data. If the results are weak, the pair may never make it to the lower median line . Watch for candlestick reversal patterns. I am optimistic the data will be positive which will most likely drive the pair lower first.
Notes:
- This technical analysis complements my two fundamental perspectives: the earliest the Fed will raise rates is December, and the ECB has no monetary policy to keep the Euro             as weak as they would like.

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