What do you think?
In regards to euro , USD has much stronger position making a leg up from last crise while euro is not recovered yet going from worse to worse making other legs down from back than. General world wide situation where deflation is more a word of tongue than inflation combined with the power of usa financial markets to turn money around will make USD still an attractive safe haven. The need of governments companies and house holds for having currency reserves in US dollars as most of the core commodities still being fix it as a price in US dollars.
The idea is definately a long shot and the risk to reward ratio demonstrates that. Also, anything can happen between now and 5 to 6 years in to the future. I think the euro has found some stability through the ECB's quantitative easing and zero interest rate policy. In short, I think Draghi's monetary policy has worked, which was to create the foundations for future growth in the euro area. Without a doubt, interest rates in the euro zone are not going to stay at zero and the FED is not talking about a rate hike until next year now. For the past 1.5 years the currency has been trading in a range so any break out will be accompanied by high momentum. I am betting on the long side and trying to get ahead of the physcological and yield curve. It is to be seem how this materializes but you have to be in it to win it.
In general terms I agree with you especially with "anything can happen in 5 years time horizon" .. true nobody knows, that's why life and also trading is so spectacular but regarding "Draghi's monetary policy has worked" I don't see it that way; if it where to work we where been to 2% inflation right now, instead we are at 0.4 or 0.6 (if I am not mistaken) they acted with to much caution to late so that's why we are here right now, the fact that could be worse and that maybe not everything is in the power of central bank and also governments should reform and also align somehow to same fiscal structure that's another discussion. Let's not forget that when he needed the most a weaker euro he said is the last cut in interest and pushed the markets against what he needed in very same moment basically he cut last time for nothing, that's a big mistake and he knew what happen last time with BOJ without being so hawkish market got against them. Ok you can say they had an agreement to push commodities up and also help fellow americans with a cheaper dollar for a while so they have good profit margins in the first half of the year so they will not crush the hall system but these conspiracy theory which I don't like to ma my calculations on. Anyway the mistake started with previous president Jean-Claude Trichet which before his departure before any economy recovered he raised rates , that I will never understand and from my point of view was a big mistake that dragged us down and if he did these just a personal thing just to finish his mandate by showing that worst in europe is over he was the biggest idiot on earth but i am sure he had other reasons. so on top of everything I will keep my bullish bias on the dollar :D