Timing is key

Potential P5 Reversal Trade at Median Line

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
1022 12 9
The following idea is based on a reversal at the large median line on a potential P5 count. I also have converging reaction lines meeting price at the potential P5 extreme. The target is the lower median line parallel. let's see how this unfolds with a conservative 19 pip stop and good Risk/Reward. The pullback is all that's needed.
Target reached!
Hello all,
Adjusted target is green ( upward sloping ) Lower ML parallel, as it has slightly exceeded my time estimate ( very close in any case and plenty of pips to boot )
All good to see, let's see if I can get an entry:) good luck to all!
Timing is key Timing is key
Perfect entry!, let's if we get the follow through as expected below 1.25000 would be nice, its just breaching the smaller fork lower parallel which should bring it down to P4 at a minimum, not expecting much through the Asian session, let's see what happens.
IvanLabrie Timing is key
Beautiful setup ;)
Can you clarify a bit on the methodology?
Timing is key IvanLabrie
I always start with a BIG PICTURE Pitchfork, so when I saw the Euro smash into the BIG Median Line with some beautiful Reversal legs, I was looking for additional confirmation for a short. My next step was is to always 'Count Pivots' as I see the markets in 5 pivots and am always on the lookout for a P5 reversal:) and thus a potential BIG move. Not to say I won't get a Pivot 6 & 7 and stop me out but even in these cases I will look to trade P7 reversal also as it will usually be an extreme move. It also tells me which leg I am trading. Even before P5 confirmed I put in a smaller pitchfork to alert me for a potential "Price Failure" ie. failure to reach the "Small" median line. Before I go to the final step let me recap what we have. 1. A direct hit of the "Major" median line with good reversal legs or pin bar, doji rejection. 2. A clear pivot count @ P5 preferrably, 3. A potential failure at the 'Small' median line ( Read the rule on price failure it gives you the probable duration of the reversal move ) and finally, unless you have the "Holy Grail" I personally don't buy/sell the line, unless your good at catching knives on the pointy end:) so my entry trigger is a pullback at around 15-20pips from the extreme, If no pullback, no trade....This gives me my good Risk/Reward 2:1 minimum preferably much higher. I hope that my explanation was not too long winded. There is alot more to this trade in terms of probable duration of move but maybe for another day:) appreciate your coments, take care
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie Timing is key
Very nice, I'll look into it, thanks for the detailed reply, always nice to see such great analysis.
aircar IvanLabrie
aircar Timing is key
aircar IvanLabrie
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