FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
384 1 2
This setup is to capitalise on the price where the EURUSD             was turned in a single downwards sell off thus far. I had not expected the EURUSD             to breach above the 1.33 handle, but seeing as it has done so, with the low liquidity provided by the FOMC, we should identify it's point of failure as a key area of interest for longer term bears. The price stalled exactly at the 161.8 extension of this larger move up, and coincidentally, at the 88.6 retracement level of the last leg down, initiated, I might add, by the previous FOMC statement (Taper ON). I will now look to establish a heavy short on pullbacks into the 1.3300/40 price area at fib levels.

We have just entered the new month and trend establishing positions will be executed over the next few days. That said, it should be borne in mind that event risk is still high for the week, with central bank meetings today, and NFP on Friday. The Euro             could very well not pullback for entries, in which case, this trade will be relinquished to the recycle bin.

Entry 1 @ 1.3300 10/20% weighted
Entry 2 @ 13320/25 30/40% weighted
Entry 3 @ 13330/40 40/60% weighted

Weighting is determined by the quality of the sell signals at the entry points. Ideally entry 3 should be heaviest, or at least equal to entry 2.

Targets as shown on the chart.

This trade ties in nicely with an early entry at point B of a Deep Crab Harmonic , looking to exit at point C for the leg up to point D. It also lines up well with the larger leg up, being an impulsive first wave move, transitioning into a second wave correction. Statistically speaking, there is a 73% chance of a 50-61.8% pullback.

Fundamentals:

Yesterday's statement did not dismiss the possibility of tapering; that being said, it should be assumed that the Euro             will weaken against the $ on a fundamental basis as tapering starts to kick in. Should tapering commence this year then the $ should start it's trend to a more equal footing, as can be seen, if one looks back far enough on a chart. Should tapering not materialise then any gained dollar strength should be neutralised before determining a position of strength, or weakness, for the EUR vs USD.
Food4Thought
3 years ago
Will not execute a scaled entry following the questionable NFP number. Will at most enter a single short position at a deep retracement fib level on weakness. Price may extend above EURUSD highs as shorts get squeezed..
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