By Andria Pichidi - July 6, 2019
An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on the central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP.
Monday – 8 July 2019
Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports are clearly impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU is still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spells further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month.
Tuesday – 9 July 2019
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.
Wednesday – 10 July 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged.
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance.
Thursday – 11 July 2019
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00)
Friday – 12 July 2019
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on the central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP.
Monday – 8 July 2019
Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports are clearly impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU is still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spells further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial Production is expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month.
Tuesday – 9 July 2019
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.
Wednesday – 10 July 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged.
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance.
Thursday – 11 July 2019
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00)
Friday – 12 July 2019
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.