Daily Timeframe: The shows that a two-bar reversal pattern was printed during Thursday and Friday’s trading sessions around a daily demand area coming in at 1.1776-1.1838 (located just above the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo ). From a technical standpoint, we feel there is a good chance higher prices could be seen this week up to 1.2041. It will be interesting to see what the 4hr timeframe has to say about this.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe saw price oscillating around the 1.1800 handle before spiking south towards the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo for the second time. This promptly saw active buying enter the market pushing prices north, closing the week (1.1840) just below a partially consumed 4hr supply area at 1.1895-1.1856.
In our opinion, buying the Euro now would be considered a risky trade to take on. Granted, we do have a higher-timeframe weekly support with a nice-looking two-bar reversal pattern seen on the , but buying into 4hr supply would effectively go against our conservative nature, and in addition to this, we mustn't forget that the Euro has been showing clear weakness over the past 6-7 months.
Therefore, no long trades will be executed until price consumes this area of 4hr supply, and with a bit of luck close above the 1.1900 handle in the process. As a consequence, this will likely see a prompt retest forcing the market northbound toward the humongous 1.2000 level. The close above 1.1900 will be our cue to begin preparing to enter long on any retest offered. The reason we believe prices can rally up to 1.2000 from 1.1900 is simply because to the left we see clear supply consumption wicks marked with green arrows at 1.1895/1.1957, effectively clearing the path north.
Current buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).