FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
2812 2 45
It 'easy to see as the most important movement or eurusd             has already been done, and the area 1.05 should be closely monitored. If we look at the big picture on the monthly time frame (see chart below), technical analysis tells us that the bearish swing has as main target around 0.91 / 0.93, impressive, right? When our research department produces analyzes on a monthly time frame, it is obliged to take into consideration the fundamental analysis .


C.O.T. ANALYSIS:


NECESSARY CONDITIONS
- Massive increase in QE ECB
- Cut deposit rates ECB
- Constant increase in interest rates throughout 2016 FED
- Maintaining current levels of domestic consumption US economy.
- Constant improvement in commodity prices

What can reverse this long-term trend?
We see only a concrete             motive: the improvement in inflation EU area.
If the two Central Banks, the ECB and the Fed will not move, we see a trading range between 1.0 and 1.20

Officially, the central banks can not "manipulating" its currency, but they have all the tools to do it "indirectly" ( monetary policy )

LAST EURUSD             INTRADAY SWING
(Click and Play)

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Thank you SignalSwisss! Is a cluster has a 50-O after the pattern completion? Just like a shark pattern? If it’s a 50-O we’ll see 1.111 soon.
Reply
I bet that we will never see 1:1. The only exception would be nearterm end of life of the euro - not (yet) the case.
I expect:
- FED backstepping - next QE follows soon (beginning of 2016?), after markets show first real weakness (soon/now).
The expected year end rallye is the best market opportunity to do the opposite.
- Euro >= 1.05, short time direction 1.10.
- S&P & Co. declining largely, then recovering somewhat into end of year and beginning of 2016, before crashing for real.
+1 Reply
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