- Massive increase in ECB
- Cut deposit rates ECB
- Constant increase in interest rates throughout 2016 FED
- Maintaining current levels of domestic consumption US economy.
- Constant improvement in commodity prices
What can reverse this long-term trend?
We see only a concrete motive: the improvement in EU area.
If the two Central Banks, the ECB and the Fed will not move, we see a trading range between 1.0 and 1.20
Officially, the central banks can not "manipulating" its currency, but they have all the tools to do it "indirectly" ( )
LAST EURUSD INTRADAY SWING
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- FED backstepping - next QE follows soon (beginning of 2016?), after markets show first real weakness (soon/now).
The expected year end rallye is the best market opportunity to do the opposite.
- Euro >= 1.05, short time direction 1.10.
- S&P & Co. declining largely, then recovering somewhat into end of year and beginning of 2016, before crashing for real.