CapMoore

Trading Ideas and Bias For The Week

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
47 0 1
On Weekly timeframe trend is bearish . In november we got a
nice sell signals (Kumo Cloud breakout, Break of Flag). These
are still in play. Price has come back up and tested the Flag
breakout level at 1,1060 (red dotted line) which coincided with
the 38,2 fib retracement of Aug-Nov swing, at 1,1,0980.

MACD indicator has put in a bullish cross, which adds pressure
on lower timeframes. There is nothing that blures the november
sell signals, but PA looks natural. And after the retest of the
1,1060 price should continue down (or test the channel itsel which
hasn't happened yet).

Price rarely leaves the Pivot Point behind over a cycle, in this case
the new Yearly Pivot Point stands at 1,1140, which is also close
to the Weekly R1, the Weekly Kijun Sen and the 50% fib of recent
swing, which in all makes the a very strong confluence resistance
level, if price will reach this level.

Bears should start worrying only if price makes a weekly close
inside the Kumo Cloud and above the Yearly Pivot Point
(though Monthly closes is more valid for Yearly Pivots)

Since price has retraced nicely to the 38,2 fib after the triggering
of the Flag Pattern, this is also an opportunity to add to shorts, if trading
this pattern with Stops above 1,1715 OR if we see a daily close
below 1,0780 level (see daily analysis ), to place the stop above
1,1060 for a more moderate risk. Another way to play the downside
is to wait for a bearis MACD cross.
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