I've been trading this pair with good success this year and have been long several times since your weekly hammer has appeared. If you look at the monthly chart you can see that the uptrend of the Euro is far from beeing completed. But I am looking at the 4 h chart at moment. And there you may even be right. I wouldn't exclude that your DXY chart shows a possible bottom. Nevertheless, I prefer to be with the trend.
Who knows. The current market situation isn't clear at all. This is true to stocks and currencies as well. Let's see who is right this time. We all trade probabilities only. One of us may be wrong but we may be right both as well depending on the timeframe.