- Societe Generale (based on Bloomberg)
By appreciating for a fourth successive day on Thursday, EUR/USD tested the 1.14 mark for the first time since October. By session-end, however, gains were contained by the last weekly resistance at 1.1390. Friday is going to be very data-dependent. We would allow for a correction down to 1.1337 (weekly R2), in case US labour market data surprises to the upside. This view is still disagreed by the daily technical indicators, as they are indicating to the upside. A spike beyond the 1.14 level risks exposing the October 2015 peak at 1.1495.
The bears continue keeping 58% of all positions on Friday, thus leaving the bulls with only the 42% share of the market. Meanwhile, 100-pip long commands have seen an abrupt drop. Now they are taking up only a third of all orders, down from 45% yesterday.