ICmarkets
Short

Our thoughts on the EUR...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
166 0 4
The value of the EUR weakened in aggressive fashion during the course of yesterday’s sessions, dropping heavily from just below our H4 sell zone (comprised of a H4 resistance line at 1. 1433             and a H4 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.1418 ). This, as you can see, cleared out bids from H4 support at 1.1367 (now acting resistance) and ended with price bottoming out just ahead of the 1.13 handle.

Technically, this sell-off was expected owing to the weekly candle trading within a weekly supply area seen at 1.1533-1.1278, whilst daily action was, at the time, also flirting with the inside of a daily supply zone coming in at 1.1446-1.1369. Additionally, we can see that yesterday’s selling formed a nice-looking daily bearish engulfing candle, suggesting that the shared currency may be looking to connect with daily demand at 1.1215-1.1264 (the next downside target seen on the higher timeframes).

Our suggestions: Watch for this market to close below 1.13, since the path beyond this number looks clear down to H4 support at 1.1233, making it an ideal take-profit line (conveniently sits within the aforementioned daily demand area). Following a satisfactory close lower, our team will begin looking for price to retest 1.13 as resistance and print a lower timeframe sell signal. This could be in the form of an engulf of demand followed by a retest, a trendline break/retest or simply a collection of selling wicks around resistance. Ultimately, stops are usually placed 5-10 pips beyond confirming structures to give the trade room to breathe.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to consume 1.13 and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation required).
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