darcy kincaid

EURUSD Continues to be range bound Long Term

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
137 0 1
Our original analysis on 9/10/2012
EUR?USD - A long Term perspective for investors and traders
stated regarding the Long entry shown as green on the chart:
"There is still a lot of room for it to run. There is nothing in the chart to preclude a sizable
retrace on the bullish side, with pockets of fierce shorting along the way. The two areas shown
as LT             Swings, both Long and Short effectively encompass a huge range that will most likely hold
for multiple years."
The analysis has proven accurate.
As the right hand chart clearly shows, the 2nd target for the current shorter term Long is above the range of the Short shown on the chart. By studying the chart and the reaction each time the short has been tested, it is obvious that the short is weakening. If you favor a long position on this time frame, this is not the ideal time to enter as the risk/reward is not acceptable.
The only acceptable risk/reward scenario is to enter on a much shorter timeframe. We have shown on the right hand chart the most recent long entry and targets. The optimal entry has passed and price is approaching a short entry range(intraday time frame) but there will be longs entering on pullbacks on even shorter time frames(intraday), not shown on the chart.
All our charts use the following color convention, red - short entry range, green - long entry range, blue- price targets. Price targets are always to the right of the entry.
One of the most difficult concepts for the large majority of traders, even very successful ones, to grasp and accept is the fact that there are always two trades occurring simultaneously on all time frames with their attendant targets. There is never a purely long or short trade from the market's standpoint, nor is there ever clear sailing to any price target, no matter how much we may wish it to be so.. We must decide which position to trade, but to close our eyes to the opposite side entry range and price targets is insanity. Forewarned is forearmed.
The proven method is Long Term in trend, Short Term counter trend. But of course you must be able to identify the optimal entry/exit price range to be profitable consistently.
All our entries, both long and short, identify trades with a risk/reward ratio of 1 risk to 6 reward. Trades with this r/r are the acceptable trades, in our opinion. They are consistently identified and traded on all time frames, from scalping to LT             Swing. The market never changes.
darcykinc@gmail.com
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