AMMT

EURUSD, where to go?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
44 1 2
The EURUSD             is trading inside a channel for the last 5 months or so. On the weekly chart, the long-term Guppy GMMA is sill well spread, indicating that there is a high probability that the price is consolidating and further down moves will occur.

On the daily chart , the long-term Guppy GMMA is compressed and the price has formed a nearly symmetric triangle inside the channel. Thus, we can expect multiple scenarios.

- Scenario 1: (blue arrows)

Since the GMMA is well spread on the weekly char, is likely that downward pressure will be dominant and the EURUSD             go south.

Scenario 1.1:

Short @ 1.1230 - 1.1250. with the down break of the triangle
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target @ 1.1058, 23.6 base of the triangle and coinciding with the lower line of the channel, price then reverses and go north...

Scenario 1.2:

Short @ 1.1230 - 1.1250. with the down break of the triangle
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target 1 @ 1.1058, 23.6 base of the triangle and coinciding with the lower line of the channel and going further down
Target 2 @ 1.0792, 61.8% based of the triangle and coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0737 - 1.0827

Scenario 1.3:

Short @ 1.1130, with the down break of the channel
Stoploss @ 1.220
Target 1 @ 1.0792, coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0737 - 1.0827
Target 2 @ 1.0573, 61.8% width of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.0520, coinciding with a long-term support/resistance area 1.0460-1.0465, with ( and take another short here) or without retest of the lower line of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.0279, 100% width of the channel or more...

Scenario 2:
Since the markets are unpredictable, an upper break of the triangle may also be expected.

Scenario 2.1:

Long @ 1.1410
Stoploss @ 1.1360
Target1 @ 1.1682, 38.2 base of the triangle and long-term support/resistance area 1.1635-1.1690, then turns south (black arrow), forming a possible double top...
Target2 @ 1.1846-1.1947, 61.8 and 76.4 base of the triangle and coinciding both with a long-term support/resistance around 1.1875 and the upper line of the channel
Target 3 @ 1.2110, 100% base of the triangle ( unlikely target?)

Happy trading and good luck!
AMMT
a year ago
BTW, all trades are managed with count back line stoploss after triggered.
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