Euro Weekly - Who's in play ? Bulls or Bears ?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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This pair tried to gain momentum after bounced from 1.272 support line which is the technical target when the price failed to maintain it's strength at 0.382 fib. level on Oct. 5, making a new high-low and testing that level again twice on Oct. 25 and at the end of the month.

The fibonacci level is created using trend based fibonacci.

Last Friday the price closed forming a dark cloud pattern right below resistance which suggest that the upside move is ended and a possible reversal is coming, but considering the previous bullish movement is not so strong the reversal may also short lived with 1.2675 as support. Only a break below previous low can assure that the bear still in play..

Next week possible trading range :

To the upside we have 1.2815, an immediate resistance created by the gap down then 1.29 reinforced with the fib. retracement as the cap.

To the downside we have 1.2675 (1.272 fib. extension and previous low) as first support, next is 1.255 which is a 1.618 fib. extension level and an immediate support created by a heavy congestion from Aug. 23 - Aug. 31.

Some important event for next week are :

Germany PPI data (Nov 20)
Eurozone EcoFin Meeting
US Consumer Sentiment Index
Eurozone Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI
Germany GDP and IFO data

Ilian Yotov, FX Strategist and Founder AllThingsForex for this pair :
"With euro-area economic conditions deteriorating, while debt crisis and "fiscal cliff" uncertainty triggers risk aversion, the EUR/USD pair could continue lower into the $1.20s."
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