andmi
Long

My EURUSD expectations + game plan for NFP Friday

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
182 0 0
I expect a short move downwards, possibly a false breakout, on NFP Friday due to the trendline being relatively close. However, since this would mean reaching the trendline with momentum, I expect a bounce and continuation of the flag afterwards.
Usually, when a move further downwards occurs, price action has to be calmer beforehand.
My expectations are further strengthened by retail trading positions, which are still net negative (oanda.com), and by CFTC non-commercial trader positions, which show a renewed uptrend towards neutral/positive.
Furthermore, the spike downwards from 1.40 to 1.05 took 10 months. The flag has been forming for only 6 1/2 months now. I would expect the flag to take at least as much time as the spike.
Additionally, many indications point to a further slide in equities , which in the recent past was synonymous with USD weakness.
My plan is to maintain a short postion into friday Oct             2nd 2015 and be long afterwards. I'm excited to see how it will play out.

Take care & trade well, everybody.

Andreas
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