I expect a short move downwards, possibly a false breakout, on NFP Friday due to the trendline being relatively close. However, since this would mean reaching the trendline with momentum, I expect a bounce and continuation of the flag afterwards.
Usually, when a move further downwards occurs, price action has to be calmer beforehand.
My expectations are further strengthened by retail trading positions, which are still net negative (oanda.com), and by CFTC non-commercial trader positions, which show a renewed uptrend towards neutral/positive.
Furthermore, the spike downwards from 1.40 to 1.05 took 10 months. The flag has been forming for only 6 1/2 months now. I would expect the flag to take at least as much time as the spike.
Additionally, many indications point to a further slide in equities, which in the recent past was synonymous with USD weakness.
My plan is to maintain a short postion into friday Oct 2nd 2015 and be long afterwards. I'm excited to see how it will play out.
Take care & trade well, everybody.
Andreas
Usually, when a move further downwards occurs, price action has to be calmer beforehand.
My expectations are further strengthened by retail trading positions, which are still net negative (oanda.com), and by CFTC non-commercial trader positions, which show a renewed uptrend towards neutral/positive.
Furthermore, the spike downwards from 1.40 to 1.05 took 10 months. The flag has been forming for only 6 1/2 months now. I would expect the flag to take at least as much time as the spike.
Additionally, many indications point to a further slide in equities, which in the recent past was synonymous with USD weakness.
My plan is to maintain a short postion into friday Oct 2nd 2015 and be long afterwards. I'm excited to see how it will play out.
Take care & trade well, everybody.
Andreas