Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (07.12-11.12)

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The most important event of last week was undoubtedly the Thursday's ECB meeting, where Mario Draghi was to present new solutions stimulus. Unfortunately, the Governing Council of the ECB disappointed markets, which had expected more aggressive action. The consensus forecast among others, in addition to the extension of the QE program, as its increase by 15-20 billion euros, which was the main point for investors. ECB cut deposit rates and only decided to extend the QE program to March 2017, leaving his future, the possibility of additional instruments. As a result, we have witnessed strong growth in the euro against the dollar. (An interesting fact is that it was the biggest one-day increase since 2009). Finally, we ended the week at 1.0880, which corresponds to an increase at 2.80%.
Summing up last week, it is worth mentioning the most important data related to the pair EUR / USD . In the first part of the week we met weaker data from the US, especially perhaps worse to worry about reading ISM Manufacturing index, which fell below 50 points and reached 48.6 points. But they fared positively PMI for industry in Europe, in addition, the unemployment rate in the euro zone fell to 10.7%. Worse than expected turned out to be the CPI and retail sales for the euro area. On Friday we learned robust readings from the US Department of Labor, which confirmed the strength of the US economy.
In the coming week, investors' attention will be directed at Friday's data from the US, when it will be announced PPI and retail sales.

The outlook for EUR / USD:

The technical situation has improved, which of course is the result of disappointment the ECB decision. Last week the demand side has led to growth, which reached the level of 1.0983. Then there was profit-taking. Therefore, at the beginning of this week, we may see further profit taking. First, the supply should be directed towards support at the level of 1,0800-1,0810. After breaking the support objective for the supply side should be a zone of support levels between 1,0740-65, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement Thursday's gains. Then the voice should reach the demand side, which after breaking resistance around the 1.0983 level, should be guided towards the 1.1095 level (peak of 29 October).


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