ICmarkets

EUR/USD: Technical outlook and review...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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The EUR continued to sink against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, consequently punching through bids around daily support (now resistance) at 1.0813, psychological support 1.0800 and mid-level support 1.0750. Trade ended with price defending a daily support level coming in at 1.0725, which, as you can see, merges beautifully with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0722.

Given that price is now trading from daily support (see above), and weekly action shows price loitering mid-range between supply at 1.1532-1.1278 and demand drawn from 1.0333-1.0502, our prime focus will be on longs today. Right now, we can see that offers have likely been filled around 1.0750, which could send prices back down to the daily support. Should this happen, our team will begin looking for lower timeframe buy entries into this market within the green box planted between the above said daily level and psychological support 1.0700, targeting 1.0750, followed closely by 1.0800/daily resistance 1.0813.

On the other hand, market participants may be attracted to the bullish Harmonic Bat pattern currently forming on the daily chart . The completion point of this pattern converges with daily demand at 1.0519-1.0583, and lurks very close to weekly demand at 1.0333-1.0502 as well. Therefore, to include the upper limits of each higher timeframe structures, our buy zone on the H4 chart for this trade (if it comes to fruition) would be between 1.0550/1.0500 (pink circle). With this being the case, a close below 1.0800 today will shift our attention to shorting this market if a confirmed retest of this barrier is seen thereafter, targeting our (pink circle) H4 buy zone just mentioned.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.0725/1.0700 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: Dependent on where one confirms this area). 1.0550/1.0500 Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: Dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Watch for bids to be consumed around 1.0725/1.0700 and then look to trade any retest of this area thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation preferred).
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