The Long Term Swing Long has been retested and predictably there is a bounce in progress. There is still alot of room for it to run, especially with the ECB promising to do "whatever it takes". There is nothing in the chart to preclude a sizable retrace on the side, with pockets of fierce shorting along the way.
The two areas shown as LT Swings, both Long and Short effectively encompass a huge range that will most likely hold for multiple years, unless there is some truly remarkable unforeseeable news event. Both LT Swing positions have many technical factors in their favor and it is our opinion that nothing short of a huge fundamental event will be a sufficient catalyst to break out of this range.
Our personal view is and has been for the past 4 years that strictly from a fundamental standpoint there is no valid reason for the euro to be above parity with the usd. This is a long term view which more have come to embrace but only time will tell.
We have identified two areas that will likely produce some shorting reaction, but we don't expect the LT Long to fail at this time. If the first short fails, we will expect a more violent reaction at the second area.
All personal views aside, we trade only what the chart tells us, Charts don't lie.
Our chart is showing a thicker green trend line that begins from the all-time low on the eurusd chart at the .8277 level. That line intersects the LT Swing Long green box area that has been tested twice.
While no one can say for sure, we do not expect that LT Swing Long to fail without some added catalyst on the fundamental side.
However that does not rule out the possibility of the identified short(s) from having reactions, or from hitting their target.
We are long from the retest of the LT Long and will continue to be so until price action warrants otherwise. But, we also trade counter trend day trades on shorter time frames as well. Currently we have no short position but are watching closely for a confirmation to enter short. Yes, we trade both ways based on our analysis. LT Swing Long, Day Trade short in this instance.
Hope that helps.