ForexWeeklyAnalysis
Short

General Market Outlook: EUR/USD Short

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
496 4 2
Please note, this is a general market outlook because it presents a very unique situation, in which is correlated between multiple time frames. Given the complexity of this trade set up, there is no "right time" to enter because depending on what time frame you're looking at, it could be right now, next week or next month.

On pretty much every time frame, short, mid and long term, there's noticeable price compression which usually indicates a pending drop based on current price action. Put simply, there's a rising wedge that's been developing on EUR/USD             for quite some time now. So the question is, when is price going to move out of this range and make a big move? Also, will price move as indicated or will it test our patience and go up first (to hunt stops) before the big drop?

The bottom black trend line is the biggest line in the sand, the bottom red and blue trend lines are short term targets and possible support/bounce points but ultimately, a bigger drop should not be out of the ordinary (low 1.3X region).

Furthermore, upside risk is not limited either, do not be fooled and think the 1.4000 level will hold indefinitely because when it breaks, price can easily move 100-200 pips above it. Reason being is because stop levels for position traders are wider around big levels, so stops will run up for quite a bit.
I've started to build a short position here at 1.3935
Reply
Couple things to note:

1. I filled a few more shorts this morning at 1.3950, 1.3965 and 1.3980.
2. Price is currently sitting at the blue downward trend line (around 1.3850), which is currently acting as support. It's not really a big level though, the more concerning level that's coming up is around 1.3800.
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
Closed 2 shorts so far, might be closing a 3rd one soon as well:

1.3935 short closed at 1.3840
1.3950 short closed at 1.3800
1.3965 short originally had TP set at 1.3780 but decided to close manually at 1.3785.
1.3980 short has a trailing stop of 30 pips (I'll let it close automatically whenever it hits the trailing stop, currently at 1.38136)
Reply
ForexWeeklyAnalysis ForexWeeklyAnalysis
2 years ago
I think I'm going to exit the last short at 85 as well and maybe enter a small long for a bounce then re-enter shorts near 1.3900
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out