The short-term .50 Fib has kept the pair lower this week as investors were relatively non-committed due to the French elections. On Thursday we had a reversal candlestick form after rejection of the .618 followed by a retest and rejection of the .50. We'll have to watch price action at the open because as of now, my longterm analysis is fairly neutral, especially pending the elections. But I'll lay out the options for both long and short moves. If the pair heads up from here, I'll be watching for a test of the 200 SMA in the area of 1.08350. If the pair can get through the 200 SMA, the next level would be the trendline resistance at 1.09160/200. A test of either of these level would change my sentiment to bearish and I will look for a down move towards the bottom trend line in the area of 1.06600. A break of this level should see a test of the very strong, long term support at 1.04950/5000.
