ICmarkets
Short

EUR/USD: technical outlook and review...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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Weekly view: In the overall scheme of things last week’s 150-pip gain meant very little to us, as for the past six weeks now, the EUR pair has and continues to consolidate around the base of supply drawn from 1.1532-1.1278. Should price break above this zone in the coming week, the next objective to reach can be seen at 1.1745 – an ignored Quasimodo level. On the flip side, a continuation move lower would possibly see prices drive deeper into the weekly range down as far as demand coming in at 1.0519-1.0798.

Weekly levels to watch this week fall in at: 1.1532-1.1278/1.1745.

Daily view: As shown on the daily chart , candle action remained below supply at 1.1329-1.1269 for the best part of last week. It was only as we moved into Friday’s session did price catapult itself above the aforementioned supply and connect with a Quasimodo resistance barrier at 1.1372. This level – coupled with the major swap resistance line just above it at 1.1432 forms a relatively tight sell zone to keep an eye on this week.

Daily levels to watch this week fall in at: 1.1372/1.1432/ 1.1211-1.1268.

4hr view: (Stopped out on our short 1.13465)

Going into Friday’s London session, we can see that the EUR currency came to life. Price rallied over 100 pips taking out both channel resistance (1.1294) and 4hr supply coming in at 1.1366-1.1349, before reaching highs of 1.1387 on the day.

With no change seen at this morning’s open 1.1352, price remains trading within the recently broken supply (now demand) at 1.1366-1.1349. At the time of writing, there appears to be active bids residing within this zone, and this could possibly push this pair up to Friday’s high today or even psychological resistance 1. 1400             given enough time. Be that as it may, entering long from here is not something that interests our team. Sure, price may rally, but it will only likely be for a small bounce at best. Our reasoning lies within the higher timeframe structures. Both the weekly and daily timeframes are currently trading around resistances (see above), which, in our opinion, may be enough to pressure this pair southbound this week.

Therefore, our prime focus today, and maybe even tomorrow as well, will be on watching for price to break back into the upward trending channel (1.1294/1.1104). Ultimately though, before any shorts are considered, we’d want to see a confirmed retest of the mid-level number 1.1350 as per the black arrows.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for bids at 1.1350/1.1330 to be consumed and look to enter on any retest seen at this area (confirmation required).


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