US employment data is do today at 8:30 along with inflation
numbers. Given the data dependency mandated by the fed any drop
in inflationary expectations would be dovish for the feds future actions push those dots plots even further back than they currently sit which is mid 2015, current 5 year tips or (treasury inflation
protected securities) sit at 1.5% which .5 below the feds 2% inflation
target. The street is not buying the feds target rate so any reduction in the data today will push EURUSD
to beyond 1.2600. A break of the lower trend line
has large trade implications to the downside while a break above 1.25700 has limted upside potential. The risk adjusted return is far greater for the short rather the long yet we will have to wait and see.