FX:EURUSD Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
US employment data is do today at 8:30 along with numbers. Given the data dependency mandated by the fed any drop in inflationary expectations would be dovish for the feds future actions push those dots plots even further back than they currently sit which is mid 2015, current 5 year tips or (treasury protected securities) sit at 1.5% which .5 below the feds 2% target. The street is not buying the feds target rate so any reduction in the data today will push EURUSD to beyond 1.2600. A break of the lower has large trade implications to the downside while a break above 1.25700 has limted upside potential. The risk adjusted return is far greater for the short rather the long yet we will have to wait and see.