Johanes

MED TERM PRICE STABILITY WIDENED TO 15 % + 1 % (GLOBAL FX RISK)

Johanes Updated   
FX_IDC:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
AFTER SEVERAL YEARS THE WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE MANAGED BY THE GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS AT THE RANGE OF 7.5 % TO 8 % IN RESPONDING TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SLOWDOWN, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (FED RES OF NY) AND THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) AGREED FOR WIDENING THE MEDIUM TERM EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE TO 15 % + 1 % BY MANAGING THE EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE 1.0400/1.2000 AS PERMITTED BY THE MONETARY POLICY OF MANAGED FLOAT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM.

SHIFTING FROM 7.5 % - 8 % TO 15 % + 1 % OF MEDIUM TERM PRICE STABILITY IS CONFIRMING THE IMPROVED AND ACCELERATED GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH BY THE TWO ECONOMIC REGIONS BUT ECB STILL CARRY AN OBLIGATION FOR LIQUIDITY SUPPLY TO TACKLE THE UNFINISHED LIQUIDITY SHORTAGE ON THE EUROZONE ECONOMY. SHIFTING THE WIDTH OF TARGET ZONE FROM 7.5 % - 8 % TO THE 15 % + 1 % WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK (SNB) AND THE BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) TO MATCH THE FINANCIAL STABILITY.

THE RISK ON THE SHIFTING IS HOW FAST OTHER CENTRAL BANKS (BOE, BOC, RBA, RBNZ AND ANOTHER 10 CENTRAL BANKS) TO FOLLOW FROM THE CURRENT MANAGED MEDIUM TERM PRICE STABILITY AT 7.5 % - 8 % TO 15 % + 1 %. THE SHIFTING PERIOD WILL PUT ALL PRICES AT RISKS BY THE UNCERTAINTY NOT ONLY BY THE PRICE ADJUSTMENT BUT ALSO ADOPTION OF THE CHANGES ON THE WIDTH. AT SUCH, PRICES WILL BE HIGHLY FLUCTUATED TO GAUGE THE ADJUSTMENT ON THE SHIFTING AND THE PRICES. AS A RESULT, ALL STOP LOSSES MANAGED INTERIOR THE CURRENT 7.5 % - 8 % WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM PRICE STABILITY AT "HIGHEST RISK" FOR PROFIT FOR COUNTER PARTIES TO TRADE IN THE FX MARKET.

THE SHIFTING FROM THE 7.5 % - 8 % TO THE 15 % + 1 % HOWEVER IS IN RESPONDING TO THE IMPROVEMENT AND ACCELERATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH OF THE NORTH AMERICA AND THE EUROZONE ECONOMIES. AT SUCH, THE GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY WILL RASE FOR RATE HIKING, LEAVING OTHER ECONOMIES AT RISK BY GLOBAL CAPITAL OUTFLOW FROM "EMERGING AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TO DEVELOPED AND UNDER-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES" BY THE MACRO ECONOMIES.
Comment:
THE SHIFTING ON THE WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE FROM 8 % TO 15 % + 1 % BY WIDENING THE TARGET ZONE IN RESPONDING TO THE IMPROVED AND ACCELERATED ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STABILITY MAY CAUSE LESS PREDICTABILITY OF EXCHANGE RATES MOVEMENTS DURING THE PERIOD UNTIL THE SHIFTING FULLY FOLLOWED BY OTHER CENTRAL BANKS. THIS MAY COLLAPSE ALL STOP LOSSES AS PRIME SOURCE OF PROFIT FOR COUNTER PARTIES TO TRADES. THE NARROWING AND WIDENING THE STOP LOSSES MANAGEMENT INTERIOR THE TARGET ZONES REMAINS AT RISK OF CURRENT WIDTH OF TARGET ZONES. LOWER RISK OF STOP LOSSES IS ONLY ASSURED FOR ALL CURRENCY PAIRS TO HAVE REACHED 15 % + 1 % OR AT THE BASELINE AND OR UNDER NEW STERILIZATION UNDERTAKING. UNCERTAINTY ON EXCHANGE RATES MOVEMENTS DURING THE ADAPTION OF THE SHIFTING BECOMES THE MOST IMPORTANT DURING THIS PERIOD, UNLESS THE STOP LOSSES ARE PREPARED FOR DONATION TO COUNTER PARTIES TO TRADE.
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