ICmarkets
Short

EUR/USD: Technical outlook and review...

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
411 2 5
Beginning with the weekly timeframe , we can see that last week’s trade ended with the EUR printing a nice-looking buying tail, closing 56 pips in the green at 1.0919. Since Dec 7th 2015, weekly action has been confined between 1.0983/1.0851 (blue/red lines), which, as you can see, still remains to be the case. Beyond this tight range, however, there’s demand seen penciled in below at 1.0333-1.0502 (converges with a long-term trendline extended from the low 0.8231), and supply coming in above at 1.1532-1.1278.

Moving down to the daily timeframe , it’s clear to see that the EUR turned bullish going into Wednesday’s session from support at 1.0725. This, as a result, broke above 1.0813 on Thursday and held beautifully as support on Friday, as price pinned this barrier to-the-pip and closed the day painting a buying tail. Should traders be looking to go long this pair based on this buying momentum , we see little room for price to stretch its legs. Directly above, a formation of stacked supply waits at 1.1072-1.1013/1.0992-1.0951.

Turning our attention to the H4, US nonfarm payrolls surged at 292k in December versus 252k in November (revised up from 211k). The unemployment rate was steady at 5.0% for a third consecutive month. Following this release the EUR immediately fell, slightly surpassing daily support at 1.0813 and just missing psychological support at 1.0800. Despite this, the U.S. dollar could not maintain this momentum as bids flooded the market rallying price over 100 pips, ending the week nudging into a resistance area drawn from 1.0946-1.0931.

Given that today’s fundamental docket is relatively light, today’s action could be somewhat limited. That being said, we really only have one level on our watch list this week – the H4 Quasimodo resistance level at 1.0984. Here’s why:

1. It converges beautifully with the upper range band seen on the weekly timeframe mentioned above at 1.0983.
2. Daily supply at 1.0992-1.0951 encapsulates this H4 level.
3. The 78.6 Fibonacci level fuses nicely with the barrier.

In light of the above confluence, our team has placed a pending sell order at 1.0983, with a stop above daily supply at 1.0994. Targets will be determined by the approach to our sell zone.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.0983 (Stop loss: 1.0994).
SSSDEV
10 months ago
Hi IcMarkets, Very nice analysis. So I would look at the levels 1.0983 to short Eur/usd . regards
Reply
ICmarkets PRO
10 months ago
Hi,

Thanks for the kind comments. 1.0983 is where we intend to short based purely on technicals.

IC markets.
Reply
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