CapMoore

Pre FOMC Outlook

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
45 1 1
The weekly close on the daily timeframe was above Weekly R1
giving a bullish bias for the next week (Price will gravitate to
the next weeks Weekly R1 and above it).
The Ichimoku system shows how price found excellent support
by the upper Kumo Cloud on the 3-4th Sep and on friday we
saw a close above the Kijun Sen (White Equilibrium line).
But price is still trading within the monthly and weekly consolidation
which looks more like a bear flag on higher timeframe.
A daily ABCD pattern has a D level at 1,18, which still is
in play (this level is also the 38,2 fib of the large bear wave)
Most traders on daily and higher timeframe are awaiting
the FOMC decision coming up, still on intraday chart possibilities
may arise             , especially on the long side, as that is the bias on
daily timeframe currently. It was the first time we saw a clean
support by the cloud since price started probing above it post
March low. This is a bullish clue.
On weekly timeframe , price is getting close to the large Kumo Cloud
resistance, next week with the lower border at 1,1375. Keep this
level in mind, since they tend to have strong impact even on lower
timeframe. This also puts a lid on the bullish possibilities pre FOMC.

Thursday's FOMC rate decision forecast is 0,5% , that is an
increased interest rate by 25 basis points. A miss may give that
leg up to complete the target at 1,18, and with an unchanged interest rate
we may see a sharp sell off. A break and close below the Bear Flag
marked in the chart, will probably challenge previous march low below
1,05.
Correction at the end: An increased rate would be USD bullish of course.
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