ICmarkets

EUR/USD: Weekly technical outlook and review.

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
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Weekly TF.

It is a beautiful site within weekly demand at 1.32940-1.34847, three weekly pin bars in a row have been seen which most traders associate with bullish activity, and sometimes rightly so! However a question we need answering is are these tails/spikes consumption or indeed rejection? Let’s take a look at the lower timeframes for a closer inspection.

Daily TF.

Last week buyers and sellers remained confined between a daily supply area above at 1.34433-1.34202 and a daily level of interest below at 1.33559. In our opinion, if a close above the aforementioned daily supply area had been seen, but had not hit the daily D/S flip area above at 1.34760-1.35265, the weekly pin bars would be valid. Nonetheless, as it stands on this timeframe, no close above has been seen, so for the time being we remain on the side of caution regarding whether the weekly pin-bar candles are indeed genuine rejection or not.

4hr TF.

Friday saw price once again rally off of the 4hr demand area below at 1.33360-1.33619, and made a high of 1.34106.

Here is a snippet from the last analysis which still holds true:

Take a look at the green down trend line , yes, we know this highlights the fact that price is trending south, but it also represents what pro money’s likely intentions are for the future. Notice how every time a decline was seen, price then rallied back up to collect sell orders for yet another push to the downside, however clearing out the sell orders also clears the path north for any future buying which is highly likely at the moment, as let’s not forget, price is currently trading within a weekly demand area (levels above), so higher prices are naturally expected.

For price to have any chance of rallying higher from here, a break above the high marked with a green flag will need to be seen at 1.34141, why? Well, if price breaks above this high, we have effectively entered into a zone that has very little supply/sellers left, so price would be free to travel north. If during the week, we see a close above the 4hr decision-point area at 1.34433-1.34305, this will also mean not only has this area of supply been consumed, but also a daily decision-point area at 1.34433-1.34202. This means we can then likely expect higher prices at least up to the next fresh supply areas on the respective timeframes (Daily: 1.34760-1.35265, 4hr: 1.34760-1.34943), and will also give some validity to rejection of prices being seen within weekly demand at 1.32940-1.34847.

Pending orders/P.A confirmation levels:

• The pending buy order (Green line) set within 4hr demand (1.33360-1.33619) at 1.33526 is now active, Our first take-profit level was hit at 1.34, so do keep an eye on our second and final take-profit level set at 1.34305.
• No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the 4hr D/S flip area (1.34760-1.34943) at 1.34753.The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here was because this is the area we believe on this timeframe pro money sellers made the decision to push prices south into (what was at the time) 4hr demand at 1.33984-1.34404, with the possibility of unfilled sell orders still waiting there.
• No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.33526 (Active) (SL: 1.33280 TP: 1.34 1.34305). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.34753 (SL: 1.35031 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

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