This is a further note to my comment earlier today, which is prompted by price action in the last hour. This may seem contrary to what I noted above, but with me. Since the drop to 1.0807, the price did indeed continue in a converging structure until it suddenly burst upward in what was a very clear impulsive pattern. Keep in mind that "e" waves can be triangles themselves. If 1.0807 was the bottom of "e", then it was wave "a" of "e". Since 1.0807, I count a "b", "c", "d" and a final "e" which ended at 1.0819 and immediately preceded the impulse. I am therefore inclined to consider the possibility that this is the first stage of the upward thrust previously forecast. This is to say that regardless of the "e" wave's low extreme having been below the "a" wave of the larger triangle, the fact that the "e" was a triangle which ended above wave "a"'s low is the key point. It seems viable in my opinion, as 4th waves, which are similarly often triangles and which should be limited by the extreme of their corresponding 1st waves do nonetheless quite often cross into the area of the 1st waves but ultimately do not end there. Therefore, I believe we may say that the "e" wave did not ultimately violate the bottom of the larger triangle, as it did not end there; it ended above it at 1.0819. Given this, and given that the price does not drop below 1.0819, we may consider that the triangle is still on track for the original thrust target of 1.18.--7/21/2015
If this is the final "e" wave of a 4th wave triangle, thrust estimate indicates a rally to the 1.18 level. This depends upon price staying above the low of wave "a" which is 1.0818.
Downward thrust from the presumed final triangle of wave "e" suggests a drop to at least 1.0839 before the upturn. I would put a stop loss at 1.0816 on a long trade.
Here is the daily chart (using FX_IDC:EURUSD). Here we see a large multi-year triangle which itself is the "b" wave of a cycle-degree ABC correction. The implied minimum downward thrust measurement for the "c" wave is shown by the yellow vertical line.
Note that, a 4th wave should not end exceeding the extreme of wave 1. In this case, wave 1's extreme has been assessed as being $1.2498. Also note that the point at which wave (C) would equal 1.618 of wave (A) (again, that common A-to-C relationship) would be just shy of that at about $1.2459.
It is also worthy of noting that the above-mentioned levels also correspond to the 1.382, 1.618 and 2.0 continuous (I call "unbroken") extension levels of the length of wave (A).
The total thrust should be a 5-wave impulse. 1.0946 would not be high enough to comprise wave 1 of 5, but perhaps it will ultimately be counted as wave 1 of 1 of 5.
I would like to add, though, that this post-triangle thrust upward -- being a "C" wave of an "ABC" 4th wave correction of larger degree (the "B" wave was the triangle) -- may have the potential to reach 161.8% of the length of its corresponding "A" wave, which just as for 3rd waves to 1st waves is also a typical proportion for "C" waves to "A" waves. That outcome would presume a final peak for this "C" wave of wave 4 at about 1.2477, which is coincidentally within a hair's breadth of the 4th wave's maximum valid limit of 1.2498 -- the low of the corresponding wave 1 of the decline which began in May of 2014.