Our thoughts on the single currency today...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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Using a top/down approach this morning, we can see that weekly action whipsawed through the top-side of a major area of supply seen at 1.1533-1.1278 yesterday. One could, as we have done in the past, now say that this zone is not on solid footing. However, let’s be mindful to the fact that price has already whipsawed through this zone once before back in late Aug 2015 at 1.1714, which followed through with a beautiful sell-off.

Casting our lines down into the daily chart , nevertheless, it’s clear to see that the EUR collided with daily resistance at 1.1615 during yesterday’s trading. An almost to-the-pip reaction from here forced this pair to chalk up a rather aggressive selling wick, which closed the day on its lows (1.1495) just ahead of daily support drawn from 1.1460. Anyone getting the feeling the EUR wants a little lower today?!?!

Stepping across to the H4 chart, yesterday’s decline from the 1.1600 handle took out the H4 mid-way support 1.1550, and ended the day closing just below the 1.1500 line. What is also shown is that if the sellers can hold this market below this number, we could possibly see a decline in value down to the daily support mentioned above at 1.1460, followed closely by a H4 broken Quasimodo support line at 1.1447. To that end, there is a relatively clear forty-pip void to sell into today!

On account of the above, today’s objective entails watching for price to retest 1.1500 as resistance together with a lower timeframe confirming signal. If this comes to fruition, we’ll take 70% of our position off the table around the 1.1460 region and reduce risk to breakeven. The remaining 30% will be left in the market to run since there is a possibility (due to where price is positioned on the weekly chart – see above) that price could continue to drop down to H4 demand at 1.1400-1.1383, which sits on top of a daily demand coming in at 1.1385-1.1332.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1500 region Tentative – confirmation required (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
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