As you can see by the below chart, this pair has been moving in a very predicable way. Predictable being a relative term. Almost every turn has followed my predictions and allowed me to make quite a few pips without suffering much if any loss at all. I don't say that to brag but to illustrate a point. Confusion is a state of mind. If you can see through the noise, you can see clearly what the movements are. Ever listen to hip-hop or rap music? Or maybe Beethoven or Tchaikovsky? If you don't normally listen to hip-hop or rap, chances are when you here it, you hear nothing but noise. Same goes for classical music. If you don't normally listen to it, if someone asked you to make out the sound of the clarinet, or ask you about the fifth movement of the fourth arrangement, your answer would probably be "HUH?" I make this analogy to show a point. If you don't know how to read the price movements on a chart, more than likely, all of it just looks confusing and a mess to you. If so, you can't make any money from trading it. What we all seek when we look at a chart is clarity. When it is clear to our eyes what is happening, then we can trade with confidence.
Take this consolidation this pair has been in for days/weeks now. What I try to do is to clear away all the noise and see the patterns. Not just but ALL possible patterns. First, what phase is it in? Trending or correcting? Obviously, correcting, right? Well, if it's in a corrective phase, should I be expecting to trade a trend? No, of course not. Then if that is the case, then I will shift my mind's eye towards looking for consolidation patterns and to trade within a zone. That's just part of the process of being able to "see" more clearly and pick out good trading opportunities.
Here's a chart giving a summary of some of the recent trades I took in this pair. During this time, I didn't take any losses on this pair. And please don't mistake what I'm showing here as bravado or ego. I don't look for nor need any praise. And I am NOT pointing out the effectiveness or extolling the virtues of . I'm not a pure harmonics trader. I use harmonics in conjunction with wave analysis as well as my own strategy to come up with trades.
Ok, so enough with the lesson. Let's see what's happening now. Prices have been resuming "normalcy" after a crazy NFP. What's normal? My wave count has been calling for wave (B) (blue) to end and a wave (C) down to begin for awhile now. Looks like that is what is happening now. What you will also see in that chart to the far right is a POTENTIAL (purple). This would complete right near the bottom TL of the large that has been forming for weeks now. You can see it better on a DAILY TF. Just keep that in mind. I'll be looking to trade it's CD leg completion if the opportunity presents itself and I'll be looking to trade it if/when it completes. There is also a pattern that also completes just below that triangle's bottom TL.
In the MAIN chart, I've focused in on the recent price movements and the and am labeling the recent declines as the beginning of wave (C) down with wave 1 and 2 completed. That means this current leg down the beginning of wave 3. Now I did not post on here my short trade I took from the end of wave 2 starting wave 3 but that would've been a good entry point. But there will be another good entry point to still be able to get some pips off this wave 3 and the CD leg of the but just must be patient and wait for the pullback.
4HR CHART - Overview Of What I Am Expecting
CONTINUED IN COMMENTS BELOW
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This is the chart I posted on this pair 18 days ago
This is the same chart but with the updated present price action. I removed everything except the relevant wave counts and patterns for clarity. You can see that prices have moved pretty much as I have been expecting them to move. No reason to not expect they will continue to move as I have them on my chart.
MY TRADE PLAN
I am looking for a pullback when prices reach the TL just below it. I'll be looking to go SHORT on this pullback and try to ride the crab CD leg down to its' completion.
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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