Full disclosure: based on monthly charts, I have a bias to the short side... but even on these 3-hour charts, I don't see how I'd want to be getting long at this point.
Chart A:
1) oscillator divergence in OB zone, with confirming hook down at the exact high point of the rally
2) price high at confluence of 50% level of X - A swing and 100% projection of A - B leg (AB = CD)
3) 50 SMA resistance holding (slightly but not decisively broken)
Chart B:
1) dashed trendline resistance; notice how the trendline drawn from the minor highs before and after the rally high exactly matches the upper parallel line of the pitchfork, creating a confluence of different line drawing methods
2) Fib time projection confluence of entire downtrend (23.6%) and second leg of downtrend (61.8%), both occurring one bar before the high
3) RSI has been oscillating within the 20 - 60 zone since the high, which is normal behavior of the RSI in a downtrend; RSI is at the level where we could anticipate a reversal and a return to the downtrend
Short at about 1.0989 on TV chart (my feed doesn't match the TV prices); I expect it's possible I'll be stopped out on the open of the next session, but I don't mind - I'll just get short again at a better price. If there's any break of the upper parallel line, I don't think it will amount to much - but Euro rallies seem to have a tendency of exceeding my expectations, so we'll see.
Longer timeframe charts indicate a possible break of the March low, but there's no confirmation of the longer term signal yet. For now, based on a 3-hour setup chart, I'm just looking for a bit over 200 pips for the next leg down - assuming a resumption of the downtrend happens. No matter how things play out over the long term, there's enough in the short term to make a short sale here worth a chance.
Good trading to all!
Chart A:
1) oscillator divergence in OB zone, with confirming hook down at the exact high point of the rally
2) price high at confluence of 50% level of X - A swing and 100% projection of A - B leg (AB = CD)
3) 50 SMA resistance holding (slightly but not decisively broken)
Chart B:
1) dashed trendline resistance; notice how the trendline drawn from the minor highs before and after the rally high exactly matches the upper parallel line of the pitchfork, creating a confluence of different line drawing methods
2) Fib time projection confluence of entire downtrend (23.6%) and second leg of downtrend (61.8%), both occurring one bar before the high
3) RSI has been oscillating within the 20 - 60 zone since the high, which is normal behavior of the RSI in a downtrend; RSI is at the level where we could anticipate a reversal and a return to the downtrend
Short at about 1.0989 on TV chart (my feed doesn't match the TV prices); I expect it's possible I'll be stopped out on the open of the next session, but I don't mind - I'll just get short again at a better price. If there's any break of the upper parallel line, I don't think it will amount to much - but Euro rallies seem to have a tendency of exceeding my expectations, so we'll see.
Longer timeframe charts indicate a possible break of the March low, but there's no confirmation of the longer term signal yet. For now, based on a 3-hour setup chart, I'm just looking for a bit over 200 pips for the next leg down - assuming a resumption of the downtrend happens. No matter how things play out over the long term, there's enough in the short term to make a short sale here worth a chance.
Good trading to all!