EUR/USD: Weekly technical outlook and review...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly view: Following the spike above weekly supply at 1.1532-1.1278, the sellers managed to hold this market lower last week by pinning the underside of the above said weekly area. As a result, the EUR currency erased a little over thirty pips of value into the close 1.1145. Given the lack of buying interest here, this week’s action may see price drive itself back into the weekly consolidation zone, comprising of the aforementioned weekly supply and a weekly demand at 1.0519-1.0798.

Daily view: From this angle, we can see that Wednesday and Thursday was certainly a sellers’ market. Bids were consumed at both 1.1214 and 1.1148 dragging price down to within a cat’s whisker of hitting a fresh daily demand zone at 1.1015-1.1076. Friday, however, saw a counter-attack of sorts, closing just below 1.1148 (support-turned resistance) finishing the week printing somewhat of a daily indecision candle.

4hr view: Friday’s bit hitter – the nonfarm payrolls came in at 173k, missing expectations of 215k. Despite this, the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% vs. 5.2% expectations, and average earnings rose to 0.3%. This mixed bag of data showed uncertainty within the market, and the 4hr and daily charts (see above) resembled this.

Price pierced psychological support 1.1100 twice during Friday’s trade, but failed to close above the mid-level barrier 1.1150. Due to price conducting most of its trade within a fifty-pip range especially during volatile events such as the NFP, this was, in our opinion, a very, very uncertain market.

So, let’s see what we have here:

• Weekly chart shows price held below weekly supply.
• Daily action lodged beneath a daily swap (resistance) level.
• Price on the 4hr timeframe is sandwiched between 1.1100/1.1150.

Judging from the above points, we think it’s fair to say that this is a bearish market for the time being. In spite of this, we see very little opportunity at the moment to sell on the 4hr timeframe that offers a reasonable enough risk/reward. To that end, we’re left with waiting for a break below 1.1100, which could open the gates for further downside to 4hr support at 1.1017. However, with this, we’d agree that although we’d be selling in line with the weekly timeframe , we’d also be shorting into DAILY DEMAND (see above).

With there clearly being little room to move, and the fact that the U.S. and Canada are on vacation today, our team will remain flat during today’s action.
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