Night_Trader

EUR-USD Longer Term Elliot Trade

Long
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
787 views
Longer Term Opportunities:

Actually I am not a big fan of Elliot Wave , but this would be a nice example if it works out.
However we have a nice Gartley pattern , which would terminate at the . 618 retracement .

In anticipation of that one could trade long now with a target at C and a stop below .618 of V-A

Comments

That was a long one ! It needed 10 months to go the way and I have to admit that I got out at break-even quite a while ago. But nevertheless the trade setup worked out fine ! :-)
Reply
If we return up to last swing high I will take profits there ! My stops are now at break-even .
Reply
I will pull my stop up to break-even.
Reply
It Doesnt seems to be a gartley to me, more like a Bat pattern, the overall "Shape" of the pattern does not look like a Gartley at all. I have check the Fibo level from your Starting Point, Which i will name it as X all the way to your V Point. The Point A in your chart is fall in Fibo 38.2 of the XV's Leg. Gartley's main requirement is to have it at 61.8. While your D point (Which is your C) should be at least fall in 78,6 to be valid but not 61.8. So i have a tendency to say that this is more to a Bat Pattern in stead of Gartley... =)
Reply
For a bat pattern point B has to be much lower. But perhaps this can still happen. But then also point C should be a bit higher for the bat to complete. In this chart the Elliot markings I-V and ABC mess things up. In the Future I will return to AB equal CD style markings. And about Gartley: I do not care too much if it retraces to .382 or .5 or .618 because you could measure X from different points. You could measure from point II. Or you could measure from point IV and call it a butterfly pattern. More important to me are two equal legs (AB=CD) in a retracement after a major move(XA). In my understanding this all doesn´t work because of some magic numbers, but because of clearly visible symmetry, which many market participants will recognize and act upon.
Reply
Zeheart Night_Trader
I tend to agree agree that the AB=CD is the critical one for a pattern, the X is actually up to you which point to take.. =) Thanks for your response
Reply
Thank you for your reply by the way. Forgot to mention that.
Reply
I follow what you are saying. Whilst I anticipate EUR to retrace from current level, but not all the way back to 1.2660 low. Here is my chart which will go some way to explain my reason which you might of interest. &
Reply
....rules...rules .....RULES!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply
I agree with your overall bullish view on EUR. Though your EW labels might not be correct. I think it would be more appropriate to have first abc zigzag with C where your wave I, is and then II is X followed by A at your III and B at your IV and C at your V. Then the Move up from July low Could as per your labels but on my chart I have wave 3 at your A, 4 at your B and your C is wave 5 in progress. Time will tell.
Reply