(T) ANALYSIS: EURUSD - Setting Up For A Nice Move.

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
3350 9 44
The way I see it,, is that this pair is looking to bust it's way up! Yes, It looks very bearish . And there are going to be many "band wagon" jumpers on this pair. Especially if it continues lower and challenges the lows. There are already a lot of fundamentals guys who are swearing it's heading down. And now. So my analysis here will undoubtedly get some negative response from them. But bring it on!

In this DAILY Chart above, the thing to pay attention to most if the possible completion of the POTENTIAL Bat @1.06102 which is very, very close to completing but not yet (as of the time of this posting). Will it complete? Can't be sure but looks quite possible. If it does complete, then prices will also be hitting the .886 retrace of the wave (A). Which if course is in the G-Zone and is the highest reversal probability level within the G-Zone. Does that mean it will reverse? No. It does not. It only means it MAY. There is the possibility that prices may keep dropping and challenge the lows established back on March of this year. Which if it did get there, would of course be a place to look for some kind of strong reaction. But that is still a ways away.

A upwards reaction off the POTENTIAL Crab completion may only end up being a upside brief retracement before heading down towards the lows as well. So keep that in mind.

I'm watching very closely this pair for a hint of a move up to start. When I see it, I will be looking to pounce on it. But right now (as of the time of this posting) I am only watching.

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Thank you! I agree with you in long term predictions but a higher bounce target above 1.2000. I don't label it as 5 waves but 7. Looks like it's dropping to a new low after a short term bounce. Finally, This pair could form a diamond pattern.
Agreed for potential up-move, although 1.22+ looks unreachable,
except for fundamental/unexpected CB policy changes - ie. FED continuous QE or ECB does not supply promised QE.
Whenever I hear anyone say "unreachable" or no way it will get there or it will do that, I just think back and remember everytime I've heard that (and I've heard it PLENTY over the years) and eventually, it happens. I've heard that for years from fundamental guys who question my analysis. For example, months ago, I predicted AUDUSD to hit 70 cents and even lower (yes, I know you are talking about the EUR but I' just using a recent example). Back then, I was ridiculed by some FA guys saying it's impossible! That AUD was being buoyed by China, yada, yada, yada..... Well, where are we now? My response is not aimed at you're comment but just to illustrate the fact that in trading, you should be careful in using terms such as "unreachable" or "not possible" because when it comes to the market, it will do whatever it will do regardless of whatever we think. (yes, of course there are "impossibilities" such as oil reaching zero.). The problem with using such terms is not that it's right or wrong to have an opinion as to what will or will not happen. It's fine. But when you use such terms, you will end up biasing yourself and consciously or unconsciously trading to support that bias. So say for example, IF prices do get near 1.22 or higher, you end up selling because you must support your bias. This is the reason I NEVER use limiting terms like those in my analysis. I always try to remain unbiased as possible in my trading so to be able to see the opportunities both ways and not be locked into my own analysis and fall into the "I'm RIGHT and the market is WRONG" trap. The market is NEVER wrong!.

Please don't take what I say here as criticism directed at you. It's not. I'm just taking advantage of this opportunity as a teaching moment for anyone who might read this.
+6 Reply
Only one confusion, your labeling the waves incorrectly, why aren't there any X-Y-Z waves ?
You are asking about the WXYXZ, I assume. Do you see a Triple Zigzag? I'm not. But if you do, it's fine. As long as it helps you to find the proper conclusion, it really doesn't matter how you label it, IMHO. And because in this case, it's redundant. Not needed in order to see what is going on. This is always what I mean by saying I'm not a traditional Elliottician and I've never claimed to be. I use a simplified method of wave counting. Don't need to label everything.
KayJay EverythingForex
Good to hear that.........well anyway great analysis
Yes Sir!!

And a cleaner chart (don't mind the wave count!):
+1 Reply

I agree based on the divergence. although i think we may see a test around 1.05 1st, but only price action will show if that happens
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