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Inflation is still below the Fed’s 2% target, due to the earlier drop in energy prices and lower prices for imported goods. Exports have declined as foreign demand subdued. The global economy has been subject to vulnerability and growth is still sluggish.
The Fed anticipates gradual rate hikes, yet the recent economic indicators have given mixed signals. Despite some FOMC voters concern that a long term low interest rate level may have an adverse effect on financial stability, the Fed takes a cautious stance on a rate hike by watching carefully the job market, inflation, and global economic growth.
The Fed anticipates the job market to strengthen further and the US economy to expand at a moderate pace over the next few years. However, the global economy and the corresponding measures are both uncertain at present, therefore, it is not impossible that rates be cut to zero in response to future large aftershocks.
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