HamzaLeith
Short

EURUSD should head south very soon!

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
631 37 4
Idea is based on a combination of EW theory and median line analysis. The rationale behind this technical analysis is shown on the chart along with specific targets and stop loss. Good luck
Totally agree, I thik tradingview need more Elliott tools like zig-zags tags(WxY Z) and maybe another 2 waves degrees, by the way you have awesome wave counts!
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
Thank you mate, glad you liked the idea, I do make mistakes as you can see. With EW it is really not that easy to get it right all the time, That is why I combine EW with Andrew's and Schiff's pitchforks and of course Fibonacci extensions to get more confirmation. But I am totally convinced that EW is the most powerful TA theory out there!. cheers Hamza
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That A B C it's a correction of what wave exactly? The wave "4" is getting into territory of wave "1", so I don't agree with this at all. I've been following you for some time because you usually have great ideas, but when you use Elliott waves I can see that you are confused with some things. I believe that you need to study more of the subject (the Elliott wave principle by Robert Ballan It's one of the good books about it). I'm not an expert either but there are some rules in Elliott waves that you just can't avoid, and that I've seen you doing it sometimes.

Please understand that I mean this in the most respectful way. I follow most of your ideas, but your EW analisis needs a polish.
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HamzaLeith Claudisimo
Dear Claudisimo, first off let me thank you for your sincere and constructive criticism. Such comments is what makes this website such an awesome and powerful learning tool for starting traders!. Regarding your observation concerning the correction wave (retracement of wave 4 into the territory of wave 1) : Please correct me if I am wrong: is not the case that correction waves don't abide by the 3 major rules that are applicable for impulse waves? hence the choppiness in these movements! I was under the impression that one may actually identify these (correction) waves when these rules are broken!! You are definitely right about me having to learn more about EW, I only started applying a short while ago. Hopefully beside reading more about the subject my application of this theory will improve due to sharp observations like yours. Cheers, Hamza
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Scloneh HamzaLeith
Well I thought that you tag that corrective wave as 1-2-3-4-5 cuz a lack of zigzag labels cuz is actually a triple zigzag w-x-y-x-z, but the idea is clear.
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
yes indeed scloneh, just to show that it consists of 5 waves! But it is still very much a correction wave!, thank you for the input
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Claudisimo HamzaLeith
Well, I asked the first question because I didn't understood if A, B, C was a corrective wave of I, II, III, IV, V or of another bigger one comming from behind. If it is a correction of I, II, III, IV, V then I have to say that that is an ENORMOUS A,B,C corrective wave. Unless you have a correction where wave B goes way beyond wave V, wave C should be 162% the size of wave A, in cases much less and very very rarely much more.

Now, about what you said of correction waves not beeing limited to the rules of impulse waves, that's true, but only because they are entirely different things. Impulse waves follow a 1, 2 ,3 ,4 ,5 pattern and correction waves an A, B, C. BUT, if you find a smaller 1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ,5 impulse wave INSIDE an A, B, C corrective wave, that smaller 1, 2, 3, 4 ,5 (If you'll forgive the repetition, it's just to make the point clear) will still follow the rules of an impulse wave (even have his own a, b ,c wave). So, correction waves don't have the same rules that impulse waves (by the way, they are harder to understand. Most people win money with impulse waves and loose with special cases of corrective waves) but if you find a correction wave that has a smaller elliott wave inside of it (as a part of it), you have to follow the rules for that one too.

So, to keep this shorter, that's why I'm saying that there's an error in your 1,2,3,4,5 (wave 2 goes beyond point 0 and 4 is at the territory of wave 1), because if you are going to recognize it as such it must follow the rules, even if it is inside a corrective wave.

By the way, I would have chosen your wave V as a B of an irregullar correction, finishing with your wave A as C. After that another elliott wave starts, with your wave 3 beeing the 5 of it, and your 4 it's C.

I apologize for my terrible english, I hope that it can at least be readable. Probably my redaction isn't the best either...
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Claudisimo Claudisimo
Oh, by the way: I believe that your wave 5 it's either a starting wave 1 or a wave 2 (if you look behind it might be) and that this currency will go up a little more (just a little). I have no idea what will happen next, I can't recognize the waves in the bigger charts.

After saying all of this i'd like to clarify that this is just what I believe, the market can always make weird movements so I can be wrong and, as I said, I'm not an expert...

Hamzaleith, keep up the good work! You have helped me a lot this weeks and i'd like to thank you for that.
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Scloneh Claudisimo
But that count ist'n for a impulsive wave, that 1-5 labels are actually represent a triple zigzag W-x-Y-x-Z, If you speak Spanish I can explain you in a better way :P Also I recommend you guys a blog of Danerics Elliott wave have awesome counts in major US indexes, or if you have some extra money visit Elliott Wave internationall in elliottwave.com you can rent a month of wave counting in major pairs and look what is happening at biggest degrees.
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Scloneh Scloneh
Triple Zigzag?
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Scloneh Scloneh
Forget my labels on blue (a,b,c) they just messed up XD
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
Thank you, great Idea!!, that wave v should come in at 1.366-1.37!
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Claudisimo Scloneh
Thanks, I'll check out the blog.

Coming back to the subject, I think you guys might be right, if this is a complex double three zigzag this should work and I've been talking more than I should. It can also be a complex triple three zigzag (more likely, I believe that when you say W x W y z you are meaning this) However, I still don't agree with the way of represent it. Zig zag movements also have elliot waves inside of them that have rules you need to respect, except if it is a trianggle zig zag (I believe this is not the case) or a zig zag with 2 A,B,C waves in a row, or a tripple, in wish case you'll have more A B C waves in a row.

Damn, corrective waves are very complex. By the way, yes, spanish is my native language.
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Guys thank you both for great input, this is helping me a lot as well, I will read your book Claudisimo and I will probably subscribe for that website Scloneh to specifically learn about these variations!. I am actually starting to think for now...I should only trade those impulses (waves 3 should not be that hard to identify) in combination with Median lines it should be enough UNTIL I will get those counts mastered. You are probably right Claudisimo about the numbering. I think it should just be ABC. But please take a look at this image because I still believe strongly that this pair is headed south. BTW these impulsive waves --> I find them so beautiful! Kind of reminds me why I liked mathematics during secondary school because it obeys the rules! hehe. Good luck and look forward to discussing more idea's with you in the future!
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Claudisimo HamzaLeith
Ok, this makes things clearer. I didn't saw that big I, II, III, IV, V wave and I thought that your A, B, C was a corrective wave of the small one. This does make more sense and is easier to see that the posible zig zag threes that we were talking (or at least think that scloneh was too).

Thanks for everything to both of you, and yes, I hope more discutions come in the future, It's always more constructive than follow ideas blindly.
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Claudisimo Claudisimo
By the way, I've always been afraid to post my ideas, but I think I'll start now. It would be great if you guys can comment because one can learn a lot and receive great feedback.
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HamzaLeith Claudisimo
Go for it Claudisimo!!!, no need to be afraid, we all are human and we all make mistakes. Use the power of the community to improve your technical analysis and I will make sure I will follow your idea's closely and hopefully be able to contribute!
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thank you for your analysis best of luck

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HamzaLeith manijeh.kazemi.33
You are welcome Manijeh! I am glad you liked the idea
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We are almost there guys... As soon as that dashed blue line is hit, I will short...look at today's waves these definitely look like impulse waves to me!!! No choppiness at all, clear bars!! I really think this idea might pay off!. Wishing you all good luck!
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HamzaLeith HamzaLeith
btw you will be able to see what I mean if you look at the 1 hr chart!!
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HamzaLeith HamzaLeith
stop loss above C (and the gray line of the pitchfork.
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Scloneh HamzaLeith
Hey dude, look this bullish scenario, instead of a triple zigzag correction, a start of a major upside movement i-ii ,(i)-(ii) I will publish it in a minor timeframe, check it out.
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
hmm, did you check the fib extensions on these legs (waves 1-2) wave 3 is usually a 1.618 fib extension. These waves 3 and 5 seem way to high!
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Scloneh HamzaLeith
Yeap, but it is not a rule at all, specially in intraday charts, the only rule that it have to complete is that wave 3 is not the smallest wave of the impulsives, 1 and 5 can be more biggers, well not at the same time, but you can have this configuration: wave1: 100ticks wave3: 30ticks wave5: 25ticks and it still being an impulsive wave.
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
true!, both scenario's are until now possible, It is a matter of which one seems more likely :-)
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
why I think it is going down!
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Scloneh HamzaLeith
Now I'm short from C in 1.3640 and I really like the bearish outlook, but the (I) (II) - I II - 1 2 configurations are the most tricky configurations, and they are very usual.
Change of tendency?
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
Here is another long term outlook supporting one more downward move...
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HamzaLeith HamzaLeith
once we zoom in on the yellow and gray pitchforks. You will noticed that we tried to close above the median line of the yellow pitchfork and failed to do so. That is why I think we will head back to the green quartile (blue price) AND THEN we could start breaking out of the yellow pitchfork
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HamzaLeith HamzaLeith
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Scloneh Scloneh
Here is in 1H

Bullish scenario
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HamzaLeith Scloneh
Ok let us wait and see what will happen, I think tonight and tomorrow morning things will get more clear!. I will definitely switch positions if we reach new highs!. Good effort man!
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Scloneh HamzaLeith
Agree, I thik the next week the fundamentals will define all :) cya!
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So it begins....wave 3!!!
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This upwards movement is just a subdivided wave 2 of wave iii. I look forward to witnessing wave 3 of iii!!. Guys IF price rises above the start of wave II then please consider my idea INVALIDATED!!
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Downwards scenario is still very valid!! only if price extends C and closes above the gray line then EURUSD will obtain a bullish bias!. It is decision time for the euro! I myself have a bearish bias due to the strong downwards impulse wave from 1.40, a bearish bias means a logical follow up of that downwards impulse! IF the euro rises then it will definitely break previous highs!
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