ANALYSIS & TRADE: EURUSD: Are We Due For A Wave 3?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
1805 14 26
I have resisted taking any stance again in this pair as of late due to just not having confidence in what it was doing after my last analysis in which I was off base. I had thought this pair to have much more downside to go before we would see an up trend. Which turned out not to be the case.

In a trade based on that assumption, I lost -50 pips (-200 in ACTUAL), as prices did in fact drop off after my post but just as quickly turned and reversed way back up to where it is now.. If you want to see, this was my trade post:

But more importantly, where are we now? Let's see....

To get right to the point, I believe we are already in a wave (3) on the way up! But prices are declining right now, you say! Yes, they are. They are declining in a wave 2 of (3) is what I think. So after this wave 2 is done....wave 3 of (3) is what we should see! I see this wave 2 as declining in a bullish descending contracting triangle which when done, will see a strong push up.

The most relevant pattern here is that descending contracting triangle pattern that looks to be just about finished (as of this posting). But the projection calls for a POTENTIAL Crab (blue) that could be marking the path of the wave 3 of (3) that should be coming.

Here is the DAILY Chart overview:

I'm actually already in a LONG trade on this pair. You can pick it out on the DAILY Chart if you want. If the count is correct, then the next move is up and should be explosive!
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+1 Reply
Your up long too early my friend!
thank you Andrew
i will eat my hat if "potential crab" gets through before 1.06
Hats can taste ok with proper seasoning :)
+4 Reply
I wonder how that hat is going to taste? Is he a vegetarian? Better be a cotton hat and not wool!
I wonder how that hat is going to taste? Is he a vegetarian? Better be a cotton hat and not wool!
Nice analysis... just one thing how can you mark a 2 wave as a triangle on 60 min chart ? Coz as far as I know wave 2 can never be a triangle..... Please enlighten me if I'm wrong :)
Sorry for late reply but just too busy lately. Yes, you are technically correct wave 2's should not contain any triangle. But this is where I continuously say that I am not your traditional Elliottician in that I value the motto of "Trade What You See" more than anything. Labeling it a triangle may be wrong according to Elliott rules BUT is it a triangle? If you don't want to violate Elliott rules, then it's simple, you just don't label it a triangle! Then you are in compliance. But how does that help you? A triangle is a triangle is a triangle. Now, could my wave count be wrong then? Yes, of course. But then again, even Prechter has said, "it's not the exact accuracy of a wave count that matters the most. It is that it is leading you in the right direction that matters most" or something to that effect. It is what is most important to me is not that my wave count is correct and follows ALL rules. It's MUCH more important that my wave count is pointing me in the correct direction for the trade. Hope that helps.
Nice chart, I'm with you on this one.
EU more downside left. Watching the price : 1.0730
Your earlier count was correct why did u change it .also remember on a long term basis euro inversely co related to usdchf and usdchf is going long to 1.03 another 250 pip left so i assume euro towards 1.06 is very likely also looking t dollar index which has a lot co relation tells the similar story it is heading to 100 or 100.4 so i believe we will see 1.057--1.058 before the 3 rd wave . Another think to notice if wave 3 already started wave 1 of wave 3 would have reached at least 1.106 (wave 1 high ) so all the above makes me think wave 2 isnt done but very complicated wave 2 is unfolding
+2 Reply
tjnrs thulasi
Unfortunately I did not save the earlier chart. Please can you tell me what was the earlier count. Yes, it is clear Eur will go to 1.06 soon.. Maybe even 1.04. But to fall that low, euro will go up first. However how much it will go up, is the question. The level of 1.11 in chart above is confusing.
Because I don't ever chain myself to one analysis and not admit I am wrong. I always have alternate scenarios and counts. I will follow whichever one makes more sense and make me money. Would I rather be wrong and make money or right and lose money? I know that sounds like an oxymoron but in this case, If this wave count is wrong but right now, following it I am making money, then does that make it "right" or in your opinion, is it still the "wrong" count? I don't know. Only time will tell which is right. It is not for me to say everyone is wrong and I am right. I am never so arrogant as I know I can easily be wrong. But for me, it is more important to "trade what you see" than to follow any conventions.
+1 Reply
perfect analysis. always love your work.
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