RECENT action suggests market is positioning for a big move in todays conference
Data : Weak inflation , retail sales , business confidence nos will put pressure on ECB to act
market expectation : market is expecting ECB to take action either by lower rates or some other measures.
imp : remember shorts position are at 2 yr high , euro has almost fallen 700 pips
if ECB takes action or talks strongly Euro may slipped below 1.31 and may move towards 1.3050 level OR IF ECB talks less dovish the we may see Euro rallying towards 1.3250 hence volatality wil be high ,
MY view on todays meeting : i expect ECB to talk strongly and tell markets further action will be taken if data worsens further. they willl also let market know that LTRO is pending and its effect is yet to be seen . hence Strong words are expected which can put further downward pressure on Euro .
Data : Weak inflation , retail sales , business confidence nos will put pressure on ECB to act
market expectation : market is expecting ECB to take action either by lower rates or some other measures.
imp : remember shorts position are at 2 yr high , euro has almost fallen 700 pips
if ECB takes action or talks strongly Euro may slipped below 1.31 and may move towards 1.3050 level OR IF ECB talks less dovish the we may see Euro rallying towards 1.3250 hence volatality wil be high ,
MY view on todays meeting : i expect ECB to talk strongly and tell markets further action will be taken if data worsens further. they willl also let market know that LTRO is pending and its effect is yet to be seen . hence Strong words are expected which can put further downward pressure on Euro .