PREVIEW: EURUSD: Here's what I'm looking at next week

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2886 21 45
I maintain my view that this pair will drop before it goes up. But I will be analyzing it in-depth again this weekend to see if I have missed anything.

It's funny. When prices are going up, people come out of the woodwork and are telling me "See? It's going up! It's gonna hit 1.20 or better before it ever goes down!" And then when prices are going down, they come out and telling me, "Watch! It MUST go to 1. 0000             before it bounces!" I just sit back and smile with amusement! Hey, in order for there to be a market, you gotta have differing opinions and people to be buying and selling, right? So God bless everyone for having those different opinions!

I have my own opinion as well but I'd like to think I just go with the market whether up or down. I don't WANT it to go in either direction. I'll let it tell me what I should do. Not the prognosticators. Don't get me wrong. I welcome the differing opinions and hope you all act on them because you make the market go up and down. And I can only make money when there is movement!

Anyway, have a nice weekend and RELAX!.
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same to you about weekend, looking forward to your anylysis..
looking forward too.
Agreed! Self-righteousness is one's biggest undoing, particularly in a market place. I buy intra-day lows for the last few days and have been doing well, knock on wood. And my short term bias will still be up.
HI EF. I have been following your TP with great interest and enjoy the Wave analysis. IN the above chart, having several patterns, wouldn't a certain pattern be more probable than other because of its ratios between XA, AB and BC leg. How or what ratios do you use for the legs in a pattern for it give a strong TP.
IE, for BAT - XA and AB should be only 38.2% and for Gartley XA and AB only 61.8% or upto 88.6% and so on....
Honestly, I don't know if one pattern is more probable than another because of it's ratios. And frankly, it does not matter really. I follow the price action and if it fills that pattern, then I use that pattern. In cases like above where you have several patterns that seem to conflict, then I look at other factors and indicators on the chart to determine which one is the likeliest outcome. But ultimately, the price action will tell me sooner or later. This goes back to the fact that I don't try to "want" one over another. Price action is the ultimate determinant. Remember, the market does not care that a bat, or a crab or a butterfly is there. It does not move in accordance to the pattern. The pattern is something we as traders use to help us visualize the underlying numbers on the chart. That is all it's good for. Just because I draw a bat on the chart does not mean that prices will follow the bat. The pattern hopefully helps us to project highest probability of the direction prices will go.

On your next question about what ratios I use for the legs in a pattern to give it a strong TP? I'm not sure what you asking? I don't assign any specific ratio to the legs. The legs assign their own ratio. whatever ratio is there determines what kind of pattern it is. If you are asking what are the pattern ratios, then go to http://www.tradeempowered.com and search the pattern ratios.
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Jebanese EverythingForex
You are Great in Price Action
+1 Reply
Hi, I think is possible before going up to 1.16 it would go down to 1.129/1.13 area. I think also that It will go up to 1.16 area but not so fast as many think, which is next week. Trend is upward. I think some profit can be made early next week in short position but go long at 1.130
Agree with u it must go down before it goes up as per Elliot wave count after every 5 wave move there is a correction from sept 3rd to sept 18th there was a 5 wave move up a wave 1.1085---1.146===375 pip ) then it broke that 5 wave move in wave a to 1.1102(till sept 22nd) now the b wave in progress(b of larger b wave ) it may test .142 or even 1.146 then fall to 1.1020 area even just below 1.10(wave a(375 pip)= min wave c 375 pip .since it is going beyond the start point of wave a it is likely to extend 1.276 to 478 pip from wave b peak point (as of now it is 1.1387---478 pip from the peak) so next week euro will start to make its down trend for abt 478 pip
I feel in the same boat...nothing screaming at me.

So in cases like that, I like to zoom out to the weekly (& even monthly) timeframes for a bigger perspective.
This gives me what appears to be a wave-4 pullback on the weekly (the stock market hiccough at the end of Aug retracing a nice 'perfect' 38.2 of my 3). That then obviously distorts my medium-term expectations, but doesn't preclude the ability to consider trades to the long-side between now and whenever that timeframe might be.

So then have to consider, if that means dollar (re-)strength, its consequent impact on stocks, commodities and bonds.

Definitely gin 'o clock !
Have a good weekend all
Maybe it is going to hit 1.21 very fast.
Being a good forecaster doesn't mean that you will make money all the time, but I do value that ability.
I posted my view, I do think it will go up and that we won't see any new lows (under the lowest low before this consolidation) before 2016.
marelli IvanLabrie
1.21 is a bit unrealistic. Draghi will QE and to make that kind of move up you need China to make an even more heavy depreciation of RMB. When China needs they never care about others (like Fed) and they just make a move but historically they won't do it so often. Last move in September was probably not even for correcting the datas on the export but mostly to give a signal to IMF that is better for everyone if RMB can join the forex elite club...It will go up but not next week. I think the charts says growing pattern but there is a lot or road to be walked before 1.60/1.70

Too simplistic a view, IMHO. To lay it all on Draghi and China is unrealistic. There are just so many other factors that need to be considered that will have impact on EUR expected and unexpected that to say it can't hit 1.21 and it won't go up is just folly. I'm not betting my life that it will go up but it is very likely.
AndyM PRO IvanLabrie
Interesting take. The choppy upward movement we had between 1.08 and 1.16 has a very corrective structure, no fives up, so it's supposed to be retraced, unless something magical happens. 1.07 till end Nov, then 1.20+ during winter months. Something incredibly big will happen in Dec which will drive that push up. This also relates to other currencies, SPX&Crude.
I'm VERY BULLISH long-term on this pair and have been for months now but the reason I'm bearish short/medium term is exactly for this reason. I tried to envision a bullish scenario short-medium term and just can't come up with a proper bullish wave count that makes any sense whereas there are at least 2 counts that show bearish move that make perfect sense. Patterns are also mostly indicating bearish move next as well as other factors. But will wait for PA to tell me when to get short.
I do think it will hit 1.21 but not before we get another push lower. But not anywhere near to the lowest low. And then after that, we should see a huge rally that I think will push prices towards 1.23 at the very least! If not even higher to 1.26ish!
AndyM PRO EverythingForex
Totally agree. Great bullish opportunities for EURUSD ahead, but those will come a bit later - once the downplay of corrective structures settles in the next 1.5 months.
I think the traditional EW analysts will be surprised...let's wait and see.
Hi! Thanks for publishing this!
Since wave W in the chart above had only three waves it's unlikely for Y to trace an ending diagonal. 5 waves in Y would be possible in a flat structure but we haven't observed deep retracements in X which is a requirement for flats. So I would think wave Y will have just three waves, which means the correction might be already over (or just one minor subwave up left, within minor 'c'). Like that we will have a good 7-wave correction, and then will go down on Monday or Tuesday at the latest.
I tend to agree with your assessment and it is likely that we will see just a small retrace wave down probably just to about the point to retest that upper TL and then one more small push up to about 1.145ish. And then we'll see a wave C down. But gotta remain open to the possibility of an ED and there is nothing to say it won't happen however unlikely. I won't be selling at this point in any case until I see solid bearish PA.

Ew analysis is not 100% crystal clear(can be a very good leading indicator if it is counted correctly and applied with other indicators) though it is better than many lagging technical indicators. one other important thing to note here lately is the co relation between gold and euro (also $ index and, usdchf invertly co related to euro ) .Gold is running into weekly resistance t tenkan sen on ichimoku cloud(it is making 4th wave triangle correction and bound for a down move to 1100 area and Dollar index is facing t line on a monthly chart and tenkan sen on a daily chart as support so an upward move is likely .All this makes a strong case for a Euro down move towards 1.10 before an upward move (also oil is heading to 41$ to make B wave of 4 th wave and usd cad will go towards 1.32,,,,1.33 to complete B wave .all this pointing towards a strong dollar next week)

hope this helps
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