PREVIEW: EURUSD: Here's what I'm looking at next week

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
2887 21 45
I maintain my view that this pair will drop before it goes up. But I will be analyzing it in-depth again this weekend to see if I have missed anything.

It's funny. When prices are going up, people come out of the woodwork and are telling me "See? It's going up! It's gonna hit 1.20 or better before it ever goes down!" And then when prices are going down, they come out and telling me, "Watch! It MUST go to 1.0000 before it bounces!" I just sit back and smile with amusement! Hey, in order for there to be a market, you gotta have differing opinions and people to be buying and selling, right? So God bless everyone for having those different opinions!

I have my own opinion as well but I'd like to think I just go with the market whether up or down. I don't WANT it to go in either direction. I'll let it tell me what I should do. Not the prognosticators. Don't get me wrong. I welcome the differing opinions and hope you all act on them because you make the market go up and down. And I can only make money when there is movement!

Anyway, have a nice weekend and RELAX!.
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Ew analysis is not 100% crystal clear(can be a very good leading indicator if it is counted correctly and applied with other indicators) though it is better than many lagging technical indicators. one other important thing to note here lately is the co relation between gold and euro (also $ index and, usdchf invertly co related to euro ) .Gold is running into weekly resistance t tenkan sen on ichimoku cloud(it is making 4th wave triangle correction and bound for a down move to 1100 area and Dollar index is facing t line on a monthly chart and tenkan sen on a daily chart as support so an upward move is likely .All this makes a strong case for a Euro down move towards 1.10 before an upward move (also oil is heading to 41$ to make B wave of 4 th wave and usd cad will go towards 1.32,,,,1.33 to complete B wave .all this pointing towards a strong dollar next week)

hope this helps
Hi! Thanks for publishing this!
Since wave W in the chart above had only three waves it's unlikely for Y to trace an ending diagonal. 5 waves in Y would be possible in a flat structure but we haven't observed deep retracements in X which is a requirement for flats. So I would think wave Y will have just three waves, which means the correction might be already over (or just one minor subwave up left, within minor 'c'). Like that we will have a good 7-wave correction, and then will go down on Monday or Tuesday at the latest.
I tend to agree with your assessment and it is likely that we will see just a small retrace wave down probably just to about the point to retest that upper TL and then one more small push up to about 1.145ish. And then we'll see a wave C down. But gotta remain open to the possibility of an ED and there is nothing to say it won't happen however unlikely. I won't be selling at this point in any case until I see solid bearish PA.

Maybe it is going to hit 1.21 very fast.
Being a good forecaster doesn't mean that you will make money all the time, but I do value that ability.
I posted my view, I do think it will go up and that we won't see any new lows (under the lowest low before this consolidation) before 2016.
marelli IvanLabrie
1.21 is a bit unrealistic. Draghi will QE and to make that kind of move up you need China to make an even more heavy depreciation of RMB. When China needs they never care about others (like Fed) and they just make a move but historically they won't do it so often. Last move in September was probably not even for correcting the datas on the export but mostly to give a signal to IMF that is better for everyone if RMB can join the forex elite club...It will go up but not next week. I think the charts says growing pattern but there is a lot or road to be walked before 1.60/1.70

Too simplistic a view, IMHO. To lay it all on Draghi and China is unrealistic. There are just so many other factors that need to be considered that will have impact on EUR expected and unexpected that to say it can't hit 1.21 and it won't go up is just folly. I'm not betting my life that it will go up but it is very likely.
AndyM IvanLabrie
Interesting take. The choppy upward movement we had between 1.08 and 1.16 has a very corrective structure, no fives up, so it's supposed to be retraced, unless something magical happens. 1.07 till end Nov, then 1.20+ during winter months. Something incredibly big will happen in Dec which will drive that push up. This also relates to other currencies, SPX&Crude.
I'm VERY BULLISH long-term on this pair and have been for months now but the reason I'm bearish short/medium term is exactly for this reason. I tried to envision a bullish scenario short-medium term and just can't come up with a proper bullish wave count that makes any sense whereas there are at least 2 counts that show bearish move that make perfect sense. Patterns are also mostly indicating bearish move next as well as other factors. But will wait for PA to tell me when to get short.
I do think it will hit 1.21 but not before we get another push lower. But not anywhere near to the lowest low. And then after that, we should see a huge rally that I think will push prices towards 1.23 at the very least! If not even higher to 1.26ish!
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