TradersClassroom
Short

More Downside Expected

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
85 0 1
a year ago
The EURUSD             is clearly in a downtrend but since its been in a downtrend for such a long time, we have to pick our entries carefully in order to not get stopped out on relief pops. A relief pop is a countertrend move that is caused by people taking profits and the market thinking the price is too cheap thus more people enter on the other side of the trade.

I have laid out three scenarios I'm looking at. All of them are with the trend and ultimately end up retesting the 1.0461 low. The red pattern on the top of the chart is a Gartley pattern . This would allow a great entry with plenty of protection to the top side. I would play the Gartley to its traditional targets but hold that last half position and look for further downside instead of exiting at the .618 like you usually would.

The two scenarios below are essentially the same strategy but with some variation. One variation has a straight shot to the 1.0461 level. This is probably the most unlikely but definitely possible. You have ECB and Fed decisions coming up which could definitely accelerate this. The second variation plays the breakout to the 1.27 extension of the XA leg of the Gartley and has it retest the breakout line before moving to its target. This would be a classic support becoming resistance scenario.

Be sure to stay tuned as I will let you know when I enter as well as my stop and targets.

Good Luck!

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a year ago
Comment: Gartley Invalidated. Going short at market even though we are pressing the recent low. Looking for the breakout here.
a year ago
Comment: Moving stop to breakeven. Risk free trade now
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