I've been saying for a couple of weeks now that this pair is due for a correction back down BEFORE it goes up and I haven't changed my tune. Despite this recent move up, I'm still looking for this pair to move lower before it does go up. Yes, I am LONG TERM VERY, VERY on this pair and have been for almost 3 months now. But for the short term, it's more than likely headed south and then sideways for a little longer. How far south? Well, that's the question I will try to answer here in this analysis.
In one of previous posts, I was calling for a SELL upon the completion of some and also because of my overall wave count. Prices shot up and invalidated all the leaving only my wave count and an still intact. Here is the chart I had on this before in which my SELL trade ended up being wrong and I lost 40 pips:
But what has happened since then? Before I get into the details of what happened and what is happening now, here's a updated and shows an overview of what I'm seeing:
So now that I've shown you what I am thinking should happen and how things might unfold on the , I'll explain what you are seeing in the MAIN chart above. It's a 4HR chart so keep that in mind. Don't know how long it will take for things to unfold but could be quick or could take longer with more sideways consolidation ahead. But eventually, this sideways action should give way to a large move up.
In the MAIN chart, it's almost the same chart as the above chart where I showed where my trade went wrong. Except now I've removed all the failed and adjusted some wave counts. But the ED is still intact and it's showing the way down. In that ED, we had an extended E wave which is rather common for E waves in an . That move up out of the ED also crossed into the MAJOR SR Structure zone looking like it would begin a big move up but quickly turned back around and back out of the structure zone leaving behind a fake breakout. I'm SURE that caught many of those "bulls" by surprise!
Anyway, prices dropped back down and then even crossed through the ED and an upward trading channel that it had been in, retested it, failed and now has continued down. Will it continue down is the question and if it does, how far? In my new estimation, I'm not thinking very far. There is a "new" uptrending TL to which maybe forming the bottom of a barrier triangle. You can see that I've drawn out the possible path should prices follow this TL and bounce from it. In the meantime, what I am expecting to happen is that prices will trace back up towards the MAJOR SR Structure and retest it. It probably won't get too close to it but enough so as to possibly form a possible . If it does do this, then that bat would complete right near to this "new" uptrending TL. Of course, this may or may not happen. There isn't a requirement for prices to do this. But it is a possibility. They could just continue heading down without retracing and forming this bat.
Incidentally, by heading back up and retesting that resistance and forming this bat, this is PA as in my post on PA shows. Here's a reminder:
MY TRADE PLAN
I will be waiting for prices to head back up and retest the resistance structure. Then I will be looking for a good SHORT opportunity. Until that happens, I'll remain on the sides.
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Also, why do you think the 1.1460 is the pivot on your PA chart (the last chart)? I think the 1.1360 could be a good the pivot that the price is currently bouncing off. If this pair takes out the 1.15 within the next couple of trading days, that would play right into your PA chart, but at a different pivot level. I don't have much patient. I longed at 1.1360 and put my SL a few pips below today's low at 1.1330. I'll add to my position if price breaks 1.1500.